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是新周期启动,还是繁荣顶点?——兼评1季度经济数据(海通宏观姜超、于博等)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月19日 19:12:54
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(这)(也)(就)(意)(味)(着)(1季)(度)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(实)(际)(需)(求)(并)(没)(有)(那)(么)(好)(。
三)(、核)(心)(还)(是)(地)(产)(汽)(车)(和)(基)(建)(
我)(们)(再)(来)(看)(一)(下)(需)(求)(的)(内)(部)(结)(构)(,外)(需)(主)(要)(由)(外)(部)(决)(定)(,所)(以)(我)(们)(主)(要)(看)(内)(需)(。
首)(先)(看)(消)(费)(,3月)(份)(的)(零)(售)(增)(速)(达)(到)(10.9%,远)(好)(于)(前)(两)(月)(的)(9.5%。其)(中)(限)(额)(以)(上)(商)(品)(零)(售)(增)(速)(达)(到)(10.1%,也)(远)(好)(于)(前)(两)(月)(的)(6.8%。
但)(从)(零)(售)(细)(分)(增)(速)(来)(看)(,3月)(份)(的)(增)(速)(回)(升)(主)(要)(归)(功)(于)(耐)(用)(品)(,其)(中)(汽)(车)(、家)(电)(、家)(具)(、装)(潢)(等)(增)(速)(均)(有)(明)(显)(回)(升)(。
从)(中)(汽)(协)(和)(乘)(联)(会)(发)(布)(的)(3月)(汽)(车)(销)(量)(数)(据)(来)(看)(,两)(者)(一)(升)(一)(降)(,其)(中)(中)(汽)(协)(3月)(乘)(用)(车)(销)(量)(增)(速)(从)(前)(两)(月)(的)(9%降)(至)(4.1%,而)(乘)(联)(会)(的)(3月)(乘)(用)(车)(销)(量)(增)(速)(从)(-2.7%升)(至)(1.9%,整)(体)(而)(言)(3月)(汽)(车)(销)(量)(增)(速)(仍)(在)(低)(位)(。
而)(其)(他)(三)(大)(高)(增)(的)(零)(售)(包)(括)(家)(电)(、家)(具)(和)(装)(潢)(均)(与)(地)(产)(市)(场)(有)(关)(。
再)(来)(看)(投)(资)(,3月)(份)(的)(投)(资)(增)(速)(回)(升)(到)(9.4%,其)(中)(基)(建)(投)(资)(增)(速)(从)(前)(两)(月)(的)(21.3%回)(落)(至)(16.8%,但)(地)(产)(投)(资)(和)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(增)(速)(都)(出)(现)(了)(明)(显)(回)(升)(。
在)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(大)(背)(景)(下)(,制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(难)(以)(出)(现)(趋)(势)(性)(的)(回)(升)(,因)(而)(未)(来)(投)(资)(走)(势)(还)(要)(看)(基)(建)(和)(地)(产)(投)(资)(的)(走)(势)(。
所)(以)(,总)(结)(来)(看)(,3月)(份)(的)(名)(义)(需)(求)(出)(现)(了)(回)(升)(,主)(要)(归)(功)(于)(消)(费)(中)(的)(汽)(车)(和)(地)(产)(相)(关)(消)(费)(,以)(及)(投)(资)(中)(的)(地)(产)(和)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(,但)(未)(来)(需)(求)(能)(否)(持)(续)(回)(升)(,主)(要)(还)(要)(看)(汽)(车)(和)(地)(产)(销)(售)(、以)(及)(基)(建)(投)(资)(的)(走)(势)(,尤)(其)(以)(后)(两)(者)(最)(为)(关)(键)(。
四)(、融)(资)(回)(落)(是)(真)(正)(风)(险)(
首)(先)(,如)(果)(我)(们)(观)(察)(基)(建)(投)(资)(,可)(以)(发)(现)(其)(和)(政)(府)(融)(资)(的)(走)(势)(密)(切)(相)(关)(,17年)(3月)(基)(建)(投)(资)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(,一)(个)(重)(要)(原)(因)(是)(3月)(份)(的)(政)(府)(净)(融)(资)(仅)(为)(4072亿)(,比)(去)(年)(同)(期)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(4260亿)(,而)(这)(与)(今)(年)(政)(府)(债)(务)(置)(换)(额)(度)(的)(下)(降)(直)(接)(相)(关)(。
从)(15年)(下)(半)(年)(开)(始)(,随)(着)(13万)(亿)(政)(府)(存)(量)(债)(务)(置)(换)(计)(划)(的)(启)(动)(,政)(府)(通)(过)(低)(成)(本)(的)(方)(式)(获)(得)(了)(大)(量)(新)(增)(融)(资)(,极)(大)(地)(支)(撑)(了)(基)(建)(投)(资)(的)(增)(长)(。过)(去)(两)(年)(,债)(务)(置)(换)(的)(额)(度)(逐)(年)(增)(加)(,从)(15年)(的)(3万)(亿)(增)(加)(到)(了)(16年)(的)(5万)(亿)(,但)(是)(置)(换)(额)(度)(是)(有)(限)(的)(,为)(了)(给)(18年)(留)(出)(空)(间)(,17年)(的)(债)(务)(置)(换)(额)(度)(下)(调)(到)(了)(3万)(亿)(,这)(也)(就)(意)(味)(着)(今)(年)(的)(政)(府)(融)(资)(比)(去)(年)(下)(降)(了)(2万)(亿)(,其)(影)(响)(已)(经)(从)(3月)(开)(始)(体)(现)(,这)(也)(意)(味)(着)(未)(来)(的)(基)(建)(投)(资)(增)(速)(难)(超)(预)(期)(。
其)(次)(,我)(们)(来)(看)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(。
3月)(份)(的)(地)(产)(销)(售)(增)(速)(是)(14.7%,比)(前)(两)(月)(的)(25.1%略)(有)(下)(滑)(。但)(地)(产)(中)(最)(主)(要)(的)(住)(宅)(部)(分)(,3月)(的)(增)(速)(是)(11.1%,同)(样)(远)(低)(于)(前)(两)(月)(的)(23.7%。
影)(响)(房)(地)(产)(销)(售)(的)(同)(样)(是)(融)(资)(数)(据)(。
3月)(份)(的)(新)(增)(居)(民)(中)(长)(期)(贷)(款)(仅)(为)(4500亿)(,已)(经)(低)(于)(去)(年)(的)(平)(均)(水)(平)(,同)(比)(多)(增)(额)(也)(降)(至)(零)(左)(右)(。而)(按)(照)(央)(行)(此)(前)(的)(计)(划)(,今)(年)(新)(增)(房)(贷)(占)(信)(贷)(的)(比)(重)(将)(控)(制)(在)(30%以)(内)(,由)(此)(计)(算)(今)(年)(的)(房)(贷)(总)(额)(将)(从)(16年)(的)(6万)(亿)(降)(至)(17年)(的)(4万)(亿)(左)(右)(,未)(来)(每)(个)(月)(的)(房)(贷)(将)(降)(至)(3000亿)(左)(右)(,房)(贷)(同)(比)(将)(出)(现)(持)(续)(的)(萎)(缩)(。
甚)(至)(,连)(汽)(车)(销)(售)(也)(受)(到)(信)(贷)(的)(影)(响)(,统)(计)(显)(示)(16年)(我)(国)(的)(汽)(车)(总)(体)(平)(均)(信)(贷)(渗)(透)(率)(达)(到)(30%,也)(就)(是)(1/3的)(汽)(车)(购)(买)(涉)(及)(到)(信)(贷)(,由)(于)(汽)(车)(信)(贷)(期)(限)(通)(常)(较)(短)(,所)(以)(与)(汽)(车)(销)(量)(增)(长)(对)(应)(的)(是)(居)(民)(短)(期)(信)(贷)(持)(续)(创)(新)(高)(。
而)(企)(业)(的)(各)(种)(投)(资)(和)(生)(产)(活)(动)(,也)(和)(信)(贷)(有)(关)(,贸)(易)(会)(使)(用)(票)(据)(融)(资)(,投)(资)(会)(使)(用)(中)(长)(期)(贷)(款)(或)(者)(债)(券)(。
但)(是)(,在)(17年)(3月)(,我)(们)(统)(计)(的)(全)(社)(会)(包)(括)(政)(府)(融)(资)(总)(共)(是)(2.53万)(亿)(,比)(去)(年)(同)(期)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(了)(6500亿)(,降)(幅)(创)(下)(15年)(4月)(以)(来)(的)(新)(高)(,而)(融)(资)(的)(回)(落)(是)(经)(济)(未)(来)(的)(真)(正)(风)(险)(所)(在)(。
五)(、金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(,泡)(沫)(难)(持)(久)(
研)(究)(中)(国)(经)(济)(,我)(们)(发)(现)(核)(心)(是)(研)(究)(钱)(。
过)(去)(一)(年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(企)(稳)(回)(升)(,从)(表)(面)(看)(是)(地)(产)(和)(基)(建)(两)(大)(需)(求)(的)(回)(升)(,但)(其)(背)(后)(各)(对)(应)(着)(10万)(亿)(的)(新)(增)(融)(资)(,我)(们)(统)(计)(16年)(中)(国)(银)(行)(业)(也)(一)(共)(增)(加)(了)(30万)(亿)(的)(资)(产)(,扣)(除)(部)(分)(在)(海)(外)(和)(央)(行)(账)(户)(上)(的)(准)(备)(金)(资)(产)(,国)(内)(部)(分)(净)(增)(加)(了)(25万)(亿)(的)(信)(贷)(资)(产)(。
问)(题)(是)(这)(25万)(亿)(的)(信)(贷)(资)(产)(是)(如)(何)(投)(放)(出)(去)(的)(?
大)(家)(所)(熟)(悉)(的)(是)(传)(统)(的)(商)(业)(银)(行)(,左)(手)(吸)(收)(存)(款)(,右)(手)(发)(放)(贷)(款)(,按)(照)(这)(样)(的)(模)(式)(,银)(行)(所)(创)(造)(的)(信)(贷)(资)(产)(永)(远)(都)(不)(可)(能)(超)(过)(其)(存)(款)(的)(规)(模)(。
但)(是)(16年)(银)(行)(体)(系)(增)(加)(的)(存)(款)(只)(有)(15万)(亿)(,其)(实)(只)(能)(够)(支)(撑)(发)(放)(至)(多)(15万)(亿)(的)(信)(贷)(,那)(多)(出)(来)(的)(10万)(亿)(,实)(际)(上)(是)(通)(过)(影)(子)(银)(行)(创)(造)(出)(来)(的)(,大)(家)(通)(过)(各)(种)(创)(新)(的)(金)(融)(工)(具)(吸)(收)(货)(币)(然)(后)(发)(放)(信)(贷)(。
也)(就)(是)(说)(,在)(过)(去)(的)(几)(年)(,中)(国)(的)(银)(行)(业)(已)(经)(发)(生)(了)(翻)(天)(覆)(地)(的)(变)(化)(,传)(统)(的)(商)(业)(银)(行)(业)(务)(在)(萎)(缩)(,而)(影)(子)(银)(行)(在)(迅)(速)(壮)(大)(。
与)(传)(统)(的)(商)(业)(银)(行)(相)(比)(,影)(子)(银)(行)(有)(着)(诸)(多)(优)(势)(,比)(如)(其)(吸)(收)(货)(币)(不)(需)(要)(缴)(纳)(准)(备)(金)(,因)(而)(可)(以)(无)(限)(地)(创)(造)(货)(币)(,同)(时)(将)(资)(产)(转)(移)(到)(表)(外)(,可)(以)(逃)(避)(对)(银)(行)(资)(本)(充)(足)(率)(和)(资)(本)(占)(用)(的)(监)(管)(。
其)(结)(果)(是)(中)(小)(银)(行)(在)(过)(去)(几)(年)(出)(现)(了)(超)(常)(规)(的)(发)(展)(,许)(多)(银)(行)(每)(年)(的)(资)(产)(增)(长)(都)(在)(50%甚)(至)(以)(上)(,整)(体)(银)(行)(体)(系)(在)(16年)(资)(产)(增)(长)(了)(16%。
问)(题)(是)(央)(行)(每)(年)(会)(制)(定)(一)(个)(M2目)(标)(,比)(如)(说)(16年)(的)(M2增)(速)(目)(标)(是)(13%,其)(考)(虑)(的)(是)(7%的)(GDP增)(速)(目)(标)(和)(3%的)(通)(胀)(目)(标)(需)(要)(,还)(略)(有)(结)(余)(。但)(是)(16年)(的)(银)(行)(资)(产)(负)(债)(增)(速)(高)(达)(16%,远)(超)(了)(10%的)(经)(济)(通)(胀)(合)(计)(目)(标)(,这)(多)(余)(的)(部)(分)(其)(实)(就)(是)(过)(去)(两)(年)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(的)(根)(源)(,因)(为)(影)(子)(银)(行)(的)(发)(展)(失)(控)(,导)(致)(货)(币)(严)(重)(超)(发)(了)(。
其)(实)(对)(于)(中)(国)(经)(济)(而)(言)(,按)(照)(去)(年)(74万)(亿)(的)(GDP规)(模)(,每)(年)(实)(现)(7%的)(GDP增)(长)(和)(3%的)(物)(价)(增)(长)(,再)(给)(定)(3%的)(空)(间)(,每)(年)(10万)(亿)(的)(货)(币)(其)(实)(就)(绰)(绰)(有)(余)(了)(。其)(实)(在)(10年)(以)(前)(的)(2007年)(,当)(时)(我)(们)(每)(年)(的)(新)(增)(货)(币)(就)(和)(新)(增)(GDP相)(差)(不)(大)(。但)(是)(在)(过)(去)(的)(10年)(间)(,我)(们)(每)(年)(的)(新)(增)(GDP变)(化)(不)(大)(,保)(持)(在)(5到)(6万)(亿)(人)(民)(币)(,但)(是)(新)(增)(的)(货)(币)(从)(07年)(的)(7万)(亿)(上)(升)(到)(去)(年)(的)(30万)(亿)(,而)(为)(了)(创)(造)(这)(些)(货)(币)(,我)(们)(的)(银)(行)(业)(已)(经)(面)(目)(全)(非)(。
但)(是)(影)(子)(银)(行)(的)(特)(点)(是)(极)(不)(稳)(定)(,一)(旦)(有)(风)(吹)(草)(动)(,就)(容)(易)(发)(生)(踩)(踏)(。
所)(以)(在)(今)(年)(央)(行)(开)(始)(实)(施)(MPA监)(管)(,其)(核)(心)(含)(义)(就)(是)(把)(银)(行)(从)(失)(控)(的)(发)(展)(中)(拉)(回)(来)(,将)(银)(行)(的)(资)(产)(增)(长)(和)(其)(资)(本)(充)(足)(率)(以)(及)(央)(行)(的)(M2目)(标)(挂)(钩)(,如)(果)(银)(行)(想)(要)(实)(现)(50%的)(资)(产)(增)(长)(,就)(必)(须)(拥)(有)(50%的)(资)(本)(充)(足)(率)(。如)(果)(资)(本)(充)(足)(率)(只)(有)(13%,那)(么)(就)(只)(能)(按)(照)(13%的)(增)(速)(扩)(张)(。这)(意)(味)(着)(MPA考)(核)(如)(果)(严)(格)(实)(施)(,影)(子)(银)(行)(的)(高)(速)(扩)(张)(时)(代)(就)(结)(束)(了)(。
而)(银)(监)(会)(在)(过)(去)(两)(周)(下)(发)(了)(7个)(文)(件)(,其)(核)(心)(也)(是)(指)(向)(各)(种)(影)(子)(银)(行)(,包)(括)(银)(行)(理)(财)(、同)(业)(业)(务)(等)(等)(,如)(果)(这)(些)(监)(管)(政)(策)(得)(到)(严)(格)(实)(施)(,其)(实)(都)(意)(味)(着)(信)(用)(从)(扩)(张)(向)(收)(缩)(的)(转)(化)(,而)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(将)(会)(面)(临)(严)(峻)(考)(验)(。
而)(对)(于)(中)(国)(经)(济)(而)(言)(,任)(何)(靠)(货)(币)(超)(发)(和)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(换)(来)(的)(回)(升)(都)(注)(定)(是)(短)(暂)(的)(,而)(应)(该)(利)(用)(经)(济)(难)(得)(的)(企)(稳)(时)(期)(,加)(大)(改)(革)(力)(度)(,释)(放)(金)(融)(风)(险)(,才)(有)(可)(能)(迎)(来)(真)(正)(有)(希)(望)(的)(未)(来)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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