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戴维斯王朝:70年价值投资生涯

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年12月06日 07:19:53
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(  在)(保)(险)(领)(域)(和)(后)(来)(的)(银)(行)(业)(领)(域)(,戴)(维)(斯)(和)(他)(的)(儿)(子)(购)(买)(了)(慢)(速)(增)(长)(行)(业)(中)(股)(价)(不)(高)(但)(发)(展)(良)(好)(的)(企)(业)(股)(票)(,所)(用)(投)(入)(远)(低)(于)(去)(购)(买)(那)(些)(最)(火)(爆)(的)(高)(科)(技)(行)(业)(中)(的)(优)(质)(企)(业)(,这)(些)(高)(科)(技)(行)(业)(往)(往)(竞)(争)(异)(常)(激)(烈)(,并)(面)(临)(投)(资)(不)(成)(反)(成)(“失)(资)(”的)(危)(险)(。
  1928-1930年)(,戴)(维)(斯)(毕)(业)(于)(普)(林)(斯)(顿)(大)(学)(,他)(专)(心)(研)(读)(国)(际)(政)(治)(,对)(股)(市)(漠)(不)(关)(心)(。1930-1931,戴)(维)(斯)(获)(哥)(伦)(比)(大)(大)(学)(硕)(士)(学)(位)(。
  戴)(维)(斯)(不)(论)(市)(场)(景)(气)(或)(低)(迷)(,节)(奏)(或)(快)(或)(慢)(,看)(好)(或)(看)(跌)(,他)(都)(抓)(住)(保)(险)(股)(票)(不)(放)(。美)(国)(保)(险)(股)(价)(过)(高)(,就)(购)(买)(日)(本)(保)(险)(股)(。1994年)(临)(终)(时)(,他)(已)(将)(初)(始)(资)(本)(扩)(大)(了)(1.8万)(倍)(。戴)(维)(斯)(热)(衷)(持)(股)(于)(精)(心)(挑)(选)(的)(公)(司)((他)(称)(作)(“滚)(利)(机)(器)(”),深)(信)(拥)(有)(滚)(利)(机)(器)(会)(获)(得)(意)(料)(不)(到)(的)(回)(报)(,反)(对)(不)(必)(要)(的)(开)(支)(。
  斯)(比)(尔)(购)(买)(“成)(长)(中)(,低)(股)(价)(”的)(公)(司)(股)(票)(。他)(们)(的)(投)(资)(是)(真)(正)(意)(义)(上)(的)(长)(期)(投)(资)(:不)(是)(五)(年)(十)(年)(,而)(是)(终)(身)(永)(久)(。即)(使)(是)(迅)(速)(增)(长)(,有)(这)(广)(阔)(前)(景)(的)(行)(业)(也)(不)(能)(保)(证)(自)(始)(至)(终)(地)(回)(报)(其)(经)(济)(资)(助)(者)(。股)(票)(走)(势)(根)(本)(不)(受)(报)(纸)(评)(论)(或)(惊)(人)(头)(条)(的)(影)(响)(。股)(价)(暴)(跌)(是)(因)(走)(投)(无)(路)(,却)(又)(能)(绝)(处)(逢)(生)(。全)(体)(意)(见)(一)(致)(是)(个)(危)(险)(的)(信)(号)(!
  二)(战)(后)(,戴)(维)(斯)(在)(杜)(威)(的)(政)(治)(机)(器)(中)(扮)(演)(小)(小)(螺)(丝)(钉)(,也)(是)(纽)(约)(州)(保)(险)(司)(坦)(率)(直)(言)(的)(公)(务)(员)(。道)(琼)(斯)(指)(数)(公)(司)(平)(均)(支)(付)(的)(股)(息)(率)(,是)(山)(姆)(大)(叔)(债)(券)(利)(率)(的)(两)(倍)(。除)(此)(之)(外)(,几)(乎)(在)(市)(场)(的)(每)(个)(领)(域)(,股)(息)(收)(益)(都)(远)(远)(超)(过)(债)(券)(收)(益)(,并)(且)(作)(为)(股)(东)(还)(可)(以)(有)(机)(会)(分)(享)(资)(本)(收)(益)(。即)(使)(如)(此)(,大)(家)(还)(是)(不)(买)(账)(。“戴)(维)(斯)(双)(杀)(”:公)(司)(收)(益)(提)(高)(,股)(票)(首)(次)(上)(涨)(;接)(着)(,投)(资)(者)(给)(收)(益)(贴)(上)(高)(价)(标)(签)(,股)(票)(会)(再)(次)(上)(涨)(。一)(旦)(确)(定)(公)(司)(处)(于)(盈)(利)(状)(态)(,他)(就)(把)(注)(意)(力)(转)(移)(至)(使)(资)(产)(复)(利)(的)(投)(资)(组)(合)(上)(!
  华)(尔)(街)(每)(日)(,每)(周)(,每)(月)(,甚)(至)(每)(年)(的)(起)(伏)(波)(动)(都)(不)(会)(改)(变)(戴)(维)(斯)(的)(决)(策)(,他)(
  在)(士)(气)(低)(落)(的)(股)(市)(中)(牢)(牢)(地)(抓)(住)(股)(票)(,心)(理)(明)(白)(是)(市)(场)(对)(自)(己)(投)(资)(组)(合)(的)(真)(正)(价)(值)(判)(断)(不)(公)(。即)(使)(面)(对)(熊)(市)(,他)(也)(能)(傲)(视)(群)(“熊)(”。戴)(维)(斯)(双)(杀)(:保)(险)(行)(业)(总)(体)(收)(益)(翻)(了)(4番)(,热)(切)(的)(投)(资)(者)(要)(多)(花)(上)(3倍)(的)(价)(格)(才)(能)(买)(到)(这)(些)(股)(票)(。新)(股)(狂)(潮)(往)(往)(是)(股)(市)(危)(机)(来)(临)(前)(的)(最)(后)(一)(幕)(。戴)(维)(斯)(寻)(找)(那)(些)(富)(有)(冒)(险)(精)(神)(而)(又)(低)(成)(本)(运)(营)(的)(复)(利)(机)(器)(。戴)(维)(斯)(开)(始)(投)(资)(时)(周)(围)(环)(境)(大)(为)(有)(利)(:普)(通)(股)(票)(以)(6倍)(收)(益)(售)(出)(,股)(息)(为)(8%到)(10%,利)(率)(很)(低)(,国)(债)(利)(息)(不)(到)(3%;斯)(比)(尔)(投)(资)(时)(环)(境)(不)(利)(,股)(票)(以)(20倍)(至)(25倍)(收)(益)(售)(出)(,股)(息)(为)(3%到)(4%;国)(债)(利)(息)(为)(5%到)(6%。牛)(市)(已)(是)(风)(烛)(残)(年)(。斯)(比)(尔)(学)(会)(的)(:别)(做)(债)(券)(持)(有)(人)(,债)(券)(持)(有)(人)(就)(是)(出)(借)(人)(。
  作)(为)(股)(东)(,股)(东)(是)(所)(有)(者)(,拥)(有)(一)(家)(成)(功)(公)(司)(之)(股)(票)(远)(比)(其)(债)(权)(回)(报)(丰)(厚)(。你)(的)(投)(资)(策)(略)(越)(是)(精)(明)(,你)(的)(资)(金)(扩)(张)(得)(越)(快)(。到)(每)(个)(公)(司)(的)(领)(地)(之)(前)(,戴)(维)(斯)(都)(要)(留)(心)(一)(下)(主)(管)(人)(员)(停)(车)(场)(的)(空)(地)(,以)(证)(明)(领)(导)(层)(是)(在)(努)(力)(改)(善)(高)(尔)(夫)(球)(技)(还)(是)(努)(力)(增)(加)(股)(东)(们)(的)(投)(资)(回)(报)(。
  股)(市)(下)(跌)(是)(好)(事)(!下)(跌)(的)(股)(市)(能)(让)(你)(以)(更)(优)(惠)(的)(价)(格)(买)(到)(好)(公)(司)(的)(更)(多)(股)(票)(。如)(果)(胸)(有)(成)(竹)(,你)(就)(能)(从)(中)(赚)(取)(大)(量)(钱)(财)(。只)(是)(很)(久)(以)(后)(才)(能)(体)(会)(到)(罢)(了)(。“我)(看)(见)(自)(己)(将)(参)(加)(一)(个)(接)(一)(个)(的)(正)(式)(晚)(宴)(。基)(本)(上)(会)(被)(困)(在)(一)(张)(公)(共)(关)(系)(网)(中)(,看)(似)(荣)(耀)(,却)(左)(右)(逢)(源)(。我)(感)(觉)(自)(己)(宁)(可)(看)(100张)(财)(务)(报)(表)(,向)(100位)(首)(席)(执)(行)(官)(提)(问)(题)(,也)(不)(愿)(为)(了)(公)(事)(主)(持)(一)(个)(鸡)(尾)(酒)(会)(,招)(待)(100个)(客)(户)(。”斯)(比)(尔)(亲)(眼)(目)(睹)(了)(购)(买)(高)(价)(成)(长)(股)(的)(后)(果)(,也)(终)(于)(了)(解)(到)(公)(司)(经)(营)(者)(一)(般)(都)(会)(尽)(量)(地)(报)(喜)(不)(报)(忧)(。戴)(维)(斯)(对)(铝)(,橡)(胶)(,汽)(车)(或)(混)(凝)(土)(公)(司)(丝)(毫)(不)(感)(兴)(趣)(。诸)(如)(此)(类)(的)(生)(产)(商)(都)(需)(要)(造)(价)(很)(高)(的)(厂)(房)(,修)(理)(和)(不)(断)(革)(新)(会)(让)(他)(们)(的)(现)(金)(所)(剩)(入)(几)(。他)(们)(会)(在)(经)(济)(萧)(条)(期)(赔)(钱)(,因)(此)(股)(票)(收)(益)(也)(不)(牢)(靠)(。他)(们)(总)(要)(引)(进)(新)(工)(序)(或)(新)(发)(明)(,这)(会)(使)(他)(们)(面)(临)(破)(产)(危)(机)(。纵)(观)(整)(个)(生)(产)(制)(造)(业)(的)(历)(史)(,没)(有)(几)(个)(公)(司)(能)(够)(长)(寿)(,只)(有)(那)(些)(不)(断)(革)(新)(改)(造)(的)(公)(司)(才)(能)(不)(被)(淘)(汰)(。一)(些)(保)(险)(公)(司)(已)(经)(度)(过)(了)(他)(们)(的)(200岁)(生)(日)(,而)(销)(售)(的)(产)(品)(基)(本)(上)(没)(变)(,还)(是)(开)(国)(者)(活)(着)(时)(候)(的)(那)(些)(。他)(们)(把)(客)(户)(的)(钱)(用)(于)(投)(资)(,从)(中)(渔)(利)(;而)(生)(产)(商)(永)(远)(也)(得)(不)(到)(这)(样)(的)(机)(会)(。银)(行)(业)(和)(保)(险)(业)(永)(不)(过)(时)(,因)(为)(金)(钱)(永)(不)(过)(时)(。正)(因)(为)(银)(行)(不)(会)(过)(时)(,所)(以)(也)(不)(能)(引)(领)(潮)(流)(,那)(么)(投)(资)(者)(就)(不)(会)(情)(愿)(花)(大)(力)(气)(购)(买)(银)(行)(股)(票)(。
  这)(样)(一)(来)(,你)(可)(以)(总)(是)(以)(较)(低)(价)(格)(买)(到)(银)(行)(股)(票)(,不)(用)(花)(许)(多)(钱)(,就)(能)(为)(银)(行)(的)(发)(展)(投)(资)(。银)(行)(是)(借)(他)(人)(之)(财)(发)(家)(致)(富)(的)(,但)(资)(金)(的)(配)(置)(必)(须)(谨)(慎)(才)(行)(。不)(计)(后)(果)(地)(发)(放)(贷)(款)(是)(职)(业)(劣)(根)(性)(,但)(风)(险)(可)(以)(由)(老)(练)(的)(经)(营)(者)(降)(到)(最)(低)(;说)(是)(老)(练)(,不)(如)(说)(是)(不)(让)(利)(欲)(熏)(心)(。慕)(斯)(股)(增)(长)(迅)(速)(但)(股)(价)(昂)(贵)(——但)(一)(旦)(利)(润)(消)(失)(,投)(资)(者)(对)(该)(股)(票)(又)(失)(去)(了)(兴)(趣)(,这)(种)(情)(况)(就)(足)(以)(致)(命)(。那)(么)(,戴)(维)(斯)(双)(杀)(就)(逆)(转)(了)(。
  1974年)(,标)(准)(普)(尔)(400指)(数)(几)(个)(月)(前)(还)(以)(30倍)(市)(盈)(率)(出)(售)(,现)(在)(却)(跌)(到)(了)(7.5倍)(市)(盈)(率)(,交)(易)(的)(甜)(头)(仅)(仅)(是)(5%。巴)(菲)(特)(建)(议)(:“当)(其)(他)(人)(贪)(婪)(时)(,你)(应)(该)(恐)(惧)(。当)(其)(他)(人)(恐)(惧)(时)(,你)(应)(该)(贪)(婪)(。”斯)(比)(尔)(从)(此)(购)(买)(低)(价)(的)(适)(度)(成)(长)(股)(。他)(认)(为)(,当)(那)(些)(备)(受)(冷)(落)(的)(公)(司)(股)(价)(上)(涨)(时)(,即)(使)(整)(个)(股)(市)(衰)(退)(,他)(们)(的)(表)(现)(也)(不)(会)(过)(于)(失)(望)(。既)(然)(你)(能)(走)(楼)(梯)(,为)(什)(么)(还)(要)(冒)(险)(撑)(杆)(跳)(呢)(?一)(大)(出)(现)(问)(题)(,你)(就)(想)(知)(道)(谁)(是)(负)(责)(人)(。良)(好)(的)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(和)(卓)(越)(的)(领)(导)(才)(能)(使)(他)(高)(枕)(无)(忧)(。“金)(钱)(永)(不)(过)(时)(”,银)(行)(保)(险)(永)(不)(过)(时)(。
  一)(个)(管)(理)(完)(善)(的)(成)(功)(零)(售)(商)(在)(一)(个)(时)(代)(后)(即)(使)(尽)(最)(大)(努)(力)(,也)(会)(惨)(遭)(淘)(汰)(,然)(而)(要)(搞)(垮)(一)(家)(管)(理)(完)(善)(的)(银)(行)(却)(非)(易)(事)(。斯)(比)(尔)(还)(购)(买)(自)(然)(资)(源)(公)(司)(的)(股)(票)(,并)(运)(用)(了)(他)(在)(纽)(约)(银)(行)(研)(究)(工)(业)(集)(团)(时)(逐)(渐)(开)(始)(重)(视)(的)(主)(题)(投)(资)(。20实)(际)(70年)(代)(中)(期)(明)(显)(的)(主)(体)(就)(是)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(上)(升)(,这)(有)(利)(于)(石)(油)(,矿)(业)(,林)(产)(品)(和)(其)(他)(硬)(资)(产)(。斯)(比)(尔)(坚)(持)(购)(买)(自)(然)(资)(源)(股)(票)(,远)(离)(热)(门)(股)(,并)(选)(择)(适)(度)(成)(长)(股)(,偶)(尔)(也)(能)(来)(一)(记)(双)(杀)(,从)(而)(使)(风)(险)(基)(金)(在)(股)(市)(中)(始)(终)(保)(持)(顶)(尖)(选)(手)(地)(位)(。他)(郑)(重)(声)(明)(绝)(不)(会)(投)(资)(于)(有)(债)(务)(问)(题)(的)(公)(司)(。
  保)(险)(业)(,到)(了)(70年)(代)(,飙)(车)(,多)(管)(闲)(事)(的)(陪)(审)(团)(和)(欺)(诈)(性)(索)(赔)(使)(CEICO这)(家)(保)(险)(业)(收)(益)(最)(稳)(定)(的)(公)(司)(苦)(恼)(不)(已)(。美)(国)(人)(口)(史)(无)(前)(例)(的)(年)(轻)(化)(,路)(上)(挤)(满)(了)(十)(几)(岁)(的)(年)(轻)(司)(机)(,他)(们)(不)(顾)(后)(果)(地)(冒)(险)(驾)(驶)(,事)(故)(率)(上)(升)(,而)(70年)(代)(的)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(率)(更)(高)(于)(60年)(代)(,增)(加)(了)(修)(车)(和)(救)(治)(伤)(员)(的)(成)(本)(。1974年)(到)(1975年)(,公)(司)(一)(直)(对)(新)(闻)(媒)(体)(以)(及)(戴)(维)(斯)(在)(内)(的)(董)(事)(会)(隐)(瞒)(存)(在)(的)(问)(题)(。直)(到)(董)(事)(会)(聘)(用)(的)(一)(名)(公)(司)(外)(审)(计)(员)(透)(露)(这)(一)(坏)(消)(息)(时)(,索)(赔)(额)(已)(经)(超)(过)(了)(公)(司)(资)(产)(。CEICO在)(达)(到)(42美)(元)(的)(高)(价)(后)(,又)(下)(跌)(了)(90%,仅)(为)(4.8美)(元)(。戴)(维)(斯)(作)(为)(最)(大)(的)(股)(东)(,如)(今)(却)(成)(了)(最)(大)(的)(输)(家)(。格)(雷)(厄)(姆)(也)(好)(不)(了)(多)(少)(。他)(已)(是)(80岁)(高)(龄)(,如)(今)(,这)(辈)(子)(的)(大)(部)(分)(积)(蓄)(都)(卷)(入)(了)(这)(家)(衰)(落)(的)(公)(司)(。巴)(菲)(特)(购)(买)(了)(GEICO公)(司)(,他)(问)(新)(执)(政)(官)(能)(够)(保)(持)(低)(成)(本)(运)(作)(,伯)(尔)(尼)(回)(答)(是)(的)(,他)(强)(调)(如)(果)(公)(司)(能)(生)(存)(下)(来)(,就)(一)(定)(能)(回)(到)(那)(传)(奇)(般)(的)(利)(润)(率)(。1976年)(的)(股)(价)(很)(便)(宜)(,当)(时)(的)(廉)(价)(股)(很)(普)(遍)(。
  戴)(维)(斯)(的)(金)(融)(生)(涯)(有)(3个)(阶)(段)(:学)(习)(,挣)(钱)(和)(回)(报)(。学)(习)(阶)(段)(持)(续)(到)(他)(40岁)(出)(头)(,挣)(钱)(阶)(段)(从)(40多)(岁)(持)(续)(到)(七)(八)(十)(岁)(。股)(市)(崩)(溃)(对)(戴)(维)(斯)(来)(说)(是)(个)(令)(人)(兴)(奋)(的)(好)(时)(机)(。他)(一)(直)(认)(为)(熊)(市)(能)(让)(人)(发)(财)(。当)(股)(市)(在)(“黑)(色)(星)(期)(一)(”收)(盘)(时)(,戴)(维)(斯)(亏)(了)(了)(1.25亿)(美)(元)(,但)(这)(个)(消)(息)(并)(没)(有)(使)(戴)(维)(斯)(动)(摇)(,他)(能)(容)(忍)(在)(股)(市)(上)(亏)(损)(1.25亿)(美)(元)(,因)(为)(他)(已)(经)(购)(买)(了)(一)(大)(堆)(廉)(价)(股)(。事)(实)(上)(,投)(资)(于)(萧)(条)(产)(业)(才)(能)(挣)(大)(钱)(。投)(资)(者)(要)(在)(这)(一)(行)(业)(中)(获)(利)(,就)(要)(购)(买)(保)(持)(低)(营)(运)(成)(本)(的)(公)(司)(的)(股)(票)(。这)(一)(只)(是)(巴)(菲)(特)(/戴)(维)(斯)(的)(做)(法)(,他)(们)(都)(寻)(求)(那)(些)(收)(益)(丰)(厚)(,管)(理)(良)(好)(且)(日)(常)(开)(支)(低)(的)(保)(险)(公)(司)(。比)(如)(CEICO和)(AIG,开)(通)(纳)(贤)(的)(领)(导)(能)(力)(是)(极)(为)(重)(要)(的)(,“你)(在)(保)(险)(业)(会)(见)(到)(很)(多)(令)(人)(惊)(讶)(的)(事)(情)(”,巴)(菲)(特)(写)(道)(,“这)(个)(行)(业)(往)(往)(会)(将)(人)(们)(掌)(握)(或)(缺)(乏)(的)(管)(理)(才)(能)(夸)(大)(到)(一)(个)(不)(合)(理)(的)(程)(度)(。”
  第)(三)(代)(:
  安)(德)(鲁)(8岁)(时)(就)(已)(经)(明)(白)(,与)(投)(资)(股)(票)(相)(比)(,储)(蓄)(存)(款)(只)(不)(过)(是)(微)(不)(足)(道)(的)(替)(代)(品)(。克)(里)(斯)(10岁)(就)(已)(经)(明)(白)(了)(卓)(越)(经)(理)(人)(投)(资)(理)(论)(,当)(他)(发)(现)(格)(里)(蔡)(是)(联)(合)(麦)(迪)(逊)(保)(险)(公)(司)(的)(总)(裁)(后)(,他)(就)(对)(该)(公)(司)(进)(行)(投)(资)(。斯)(比)(尔)(回)(忆)(道)(:“我)(告)(诉)(他)(们)(投)(资)(最)(重)(要)(的)(一)(点)(就)(是)(我)(多)(么)(热)(爱)(这)(一)(行)(,即)(使)(在)(70年)(代)(的)(萧)(条)(时)(期)(也)(是)(如)(此)(。我)(深)(信)(选)(股)(这)(件)(事)(任)(何)(一)(个)(孩)(子)(都)(能)(干)(,我)(试)(图)(让)(它)(变)(得)(简)(单)(而)(有)(趣)(。有)(关)(于)(数)(学)(的)(部)(分)(——记)(账)(和)(计)(算)(程)(序)(,我)(认)(为)(他)(们)(以)(后)(可)(以)(学)(。我)(让)(他)(们)(干)(侦)(探)(工)(作)(,找)(出)(有)(关)(公)(司)(前)(景)(的)(蛛)(丝)(马)(迹)(。有)(时)(候)(,我)(去)(一)(些)(公)(司)(访)(问)(时)(会)(带)(上)(他)(们)(,就)(像)(我)(父)(亲)(当)(年)(带)(我)(去)(公)(司)(一)(样)(。”听)(了)(MCI公)(司)(总)(裁)(做)(了)(一)(个)(令)(人)(信)(服)(的)(案)(例)(后)(,托)(利)(在)(个)(人)(账)(户)(上)(购)(买)(了)(该)(公)(司)(的)(股)(票)(,并)(冠)(以)(家)(庭)(推)(荐)(股)(。第)(三)(代)(从)(不)(讨)(论)(棒)(球)(,曲)(棍)(球)(或)(好)(莱)(坞)(,他)(们)(和)(第)(二)(代)(只)(谈)(论)(股)(票)(和)(政)(治)(。《华)(尔)(街)(日)(报)(》重)(新)(点)(燃)(了)(安)(德)(鲁)(对)(金)(钱)(游)(戏)(的)(兴)(趣)(。戴)(维)(斯)(仅)(仅)(以)(15W美)(元)(的)(原)(始)(资)(本)(,50年)(后)(变)(成)(了)(2.61亿)(。一)(旦)(戴)(维)(斯)(购)(进)(优)(良)(公)(司)(的)(股)(票)(,其)(最)(佳)(决)(策)(就)(是)(按)(兵)(不)(动)(。他)(守)(着)(那)(些)(保)(险)(股)(度)(过)(了)(每)(日)(,每)(周)(,每)(月)(的)(循)(环)(波)(动)(,他)(经)(历)(了)(温)(和)(的)(熊)(市)(,动)(荡)(的)(熊)(市)(,崩)(溃)(和)(回)(落)(,也)(见)(证)(了)(众)(多)(分)(析)(师)(的)(高)(预)(测)(与)(地)(预)(测)(,技)(术)(性)(卖)(出)(讯)(号)(以)(及)(股)(市)(变)(动)(的)(显)(著)(信)(号)(,但)(始)(终)(稳)(坐)(钓)(鱼)(台)(。只)(要)(他)(坚)(信)(公)(司)(的)(领)(导)(能)(力)(和)(持)(续)(盈)(利)(的)(能)(力)(,他)(就)(按)(兵)(不)(动)(。
  该)(投)(资)(组)(合)(的)(关)(键)(之)(处)(在)(于)(:少)(数)(几)(个)(大)(赢)(家)(在)(戴)(维)(斯)(一)(生)(的)(投)(资)(中)(起)(到)(了)(至)(关)(重)(要)(的)(作)(用)(,而)(这)(些)(赢)(家)(要)(经)(过)(很)(多)(年)(才)(能)(升)(值)(。任)(何)(缺)(乏)(经)(验)(的)(投)(资)(新)(手)(比)(起)(久)(经)(沙)(场)(的)(投)(资)(老)(手)(都)(有)(一)(个)(内)(在)(的)(优)(势)(:时)(间)(。美)(国)(的)(婴)(儿)(潮)(一)(代)(希)(望)(自)(己)(的)(投)(资)(组)(合)(能)(够)(给)(他)(们)(带)(来)(无)(忧)(无)(虑)(的)(退)(休)(生)(活)(,因)(而)(把)(数)(十)(亿)(资)(产)(投)(入)(了)(共)(同)(基)(金)(。他)(们)(狂)(热)(的)(购)(买)(行)(为)(使)(20世)(纪)(90年)(代)(成)(为)(20世)(纪)(50年)(代)(以)(来)(股)(票)(的)(最)(佳)(年)(度)(。富)(国)(银)(行)(和)(花)(旗)(银)(行)(陷)(入)(严)(重)(违)(纪)(,股)(价)(一)(路)(下)(挫)(。而)(富)(国)(银)(行)(总)(裁)(卡)(尔)(雷)(查)(德)(正)(是)(那)(类)(能)(够)(促)(使)(戴)(维)(斯)(作)(出)(最)(佳)(投)(资)(决)(策)(的)(领)(袖)(人)(物)(。雷)(查)(德)(告)(诉)(斯)(比)(尔)(:“我)(自)(己)(在)(这)(家)(银)(行)(有)(5000万)(美)(元)(,因)(此)(我)(不)(会)(让)(你)(失)(望)(的)(。”斯)(比)(尔)(略)(带)(不)(安)(地)(购)(买)(了)(富)(国)(银)(行)(的)(股)(票)(。他)(不)(希)(望)(被)(一)(些)(令)(人)(不)(快)(的)(意)(外)(搞)(得)(措)(手)(不)(及)(。因)(此)(他)(严)(密)(注)(视)(银)(行)(的)(最)(新)(发)(展)(情)(况)(,“晚)(上)(我)(会)(因)(为)(担)(心)(一)(些)(细)(节)(问)(题)(而)(惊)(醒)(,第)(二)(天)(,我)(会)(打)(电)(话)(去)(核)(查)(。半)(年)(里)(我)(跟)(他)(们)(谈)(了)(至)(少)(有)(20次)(。渐)(渐)(地)(,我)(越)(来)(越)(相)(信)(他)(们)(已)(经)(控)(制)(了)(不)(利)(局)(面)(。”
  《英)(雄)(所)(见)(略)(同)(》:
  巴)(菲)(特)(也)(买)(了)(富)(国)(银)(行)(的)(股)(票)(。当)(时)(华)(尔)(街)(大)(部)(分)(著)(名)(悲)(观)(主)(义)(评)(论)(家)(都)(相)(当)(不)(看)(好)(富)(国)(银)(行)(。斯)(比)(尔)(也)(买)(了)(花)(旗)(的)(股)(票)(。10年)(后)(,斯)(比)(尔)(在)(花)(旗)(银)(行)(的)(投)(资)(翻)(了)(20倍)(。新)(的)(花)(旗)(集)(团)(由)(桑)(迪)(韦)(尔)(管)(理)(,韦)(尔)(又)(是)(一)(个)(例)(子)(,证)(明)(了)(卓)(越)(的)(领)(袖)(能)(带)(动)(公)(司)(发)(展)(到)(一)(个)(任)(何)(计)(算)(器)(都)(无)(法)(衡)(量)(的)(水)(平)(。韦)(尔)(的)(任)(务)(是)(“收)(购)(,增)(长)(和)(削)(减)(成)(本)(”,他)(完)(成)(了)(这)(三)(项)(任)(务)(,并)(实)(现)(了)(自)(己)(的)(诺)(言)(,使)(花)(旗)(集)(团)(的)(收)(益)(每)(5年)(翻)(一)(番)(。克)(里)(斯)(上)(台)(时)(,在)(婴)(儿)(潮)(中)(出)(生)(的)(人)(开)(始)(为)(退)(休)(存)(钱)(,使)(金)(融)(服)(务)(业)(从)(中)(受)(益)(,就)(像)(二)(战)(后)(他)(们)(的)(父)(母)(大)(量)(购)(买)(保)(单)(而)(使)(保)(险)(公)(司)(受)(益)(一)(样)(。戴)(维)(斯)(用)(了)(42年)(的)(时)(间)(赚)(到)(了)(第)(一)(个)(4亿)(美)(元)(,而)(斯)(比)(尔)(在)(4年)(后)(帮)(他)(赚)(到)(了)(又)(一)(个)(5亿)(美)(元)(。牛)(市)(末)(期)(,很)(多)(公)(司)(都)(编)(造)(账)(目)(以)(满)(足)(华)(尔)(街)(的)(期)(望)(。对)(于)(戴)(维)(斯)(来)(说)(,买)(进)(一)(支)(股)(票)(就)(是)(一)(辈)(子)(的)(事)(。不)(买)(高)(价)(成)(长)(股)(!戴)(维)(斯)(,彼)(得)(林)(奇)(和)(巴)(菲)(特)(通)(常)(不)(买)(技)(术)(股)(。技)(术)(行)(业)(不)(可)(预)(测)(。对)(付)(熊)(市)(最)(好)(的)(保)(护)(措)(施)(就)(是)(购)(买)(那)(些)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(良)(好)(,债)(务)(少)(,有)(实)(际)(收)(益)(并)(由)(能)(力)(实)(现)(全)(球)(化)(经)(营)(的)(公)(司)(。这)(些)(公)(司)(能)(挺)(过)(经)(济)(萧)(条)(期)(,最)(终)(占)(据)(更)(大)(优)(势)(,而)(拙)(劣)(的)(对)(手)(则)(被)(迫)(削)(减)(资)(产)(或)(倒)(闭)(。价)(值)(型)(投)(资)(者)(并)(不)(关)(注)(可)(能)(成)(功)(的)(公)(司)(,而)(是)(投)(资)(于)(已)(经)(成)(功)(的)(公)(司)(。
  戴)(维)(斯)(持)(有)(保)(险)(股)(票)(40年)(。戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(基)(本)(原)(则)(:
  1.不)(买)(廉)(价)(股)(。公)(司)(的)(首)(席)(执)(行)(官)(会)(预)(测)(好)(时)(机)(何)(时)(到)(来)(,这)(也)(正)(是)(他)(们)(一)(贯)(所)(做)(的)(。公)(司)(业)(绩)(可)(能)(会)(恢)(复)(,单)(着)(仅)(仅)(是)(个)(假)(设)(。即)(使)(能)(够)(恢)(复)(业)(绩)(,花)(费)(的)(时)(间)(也)(常)(常)(会)(超)(出)(任)(何)(人)(的)(预)(期)(,只)(有)(受)(虐)(狂)(才)(会)(喜)(欢)(这)(类)(投)(资)(。
  20世)(纪)(80年)(代)(的)(经)(历)(使)(斯)(尔)(必)(认)(识)(到)(大)(部)(分)(廉)(价)(股)(只)(值)(这)(个)(价)(钱)(,因)(为)(它)(们)(是)(普)(通)(公)(司)(所)(发)(行)(的)(。机)(会)(在)(于)(,这)(些)(公)(司)(的)(股)(票)(可)(能)(会)(始)(终)(保)(持)(低)(价)(。公)(司)(的)(首)(席)(执)(行)(官)(会)(预)(测)(好)(时)(机)(何)(时)(到)(来)(,这)(也)(正)(是)(他)(们)(一)(贯)(所)(做)(的)(。公)(司)(业)(
  绩)(可)(能)(会)(恢)(复)(,但)(这)(仅)(仅)(是)(个)(假)(设)(。“即)(使)(能)(够)(恢)(复)(业)(绩)(,”斯)(尔)(必)(说)(,“花)(费)(的)(时)(间)(也)(常)(常)(会)(超)(出)(任)(何)(人)(的)(预)(期)(。只)(有)(受)(虐)(狂)(才)(会)(喜)(欢)(这)(类)(投)(资)(,”
  2.不)(买)(高)(价)(股)(。任)(何)(公)(司)(的)(高)(股)(价)(都)(没)(有)(吸)(引)(力)(。热)(门)(股)(经)(常)(外)(强)(中)(干)(。很)(容)(易)(遭)(到)(戴)(维)(斯)(双)(杀)(。
  股)(票)(之)(所)(以)(值)(这)(个)(高)(价)(位)(是)(因)(为)(它)(们)(是)(由)(卓)(越)(的)(公)(司)(所)(发)(行)(的)(,但)(斯)(尔)(必)(却)(不)(肯)(购)(买)(这)(类)(股)(票)(,除)(非)(股)(价)(相)(对)(于)(其)(收)(益)(而)(言)(比)(较)(合)(理)(。斯)(尔)(必)(认)(为)(,“任)(何)(公)(司)(的)(股)(价)(都)(没)(有)(吸)(引)(力)(”。戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(的)(人)(从)(不)(会)(多)(花)(钱)(买)(衣)(服)(、买)(房)(子)(或)(度)(假)(。为)(什)(么)(投)(资)(者)(要)(为)(收)(益)(而)(多)(花)(钱)(呢)(?毕)(竟)(无)(论)(他)(们)(何)(时)(进)(行)(投)(资)(,他)(们)(要)(买)(的)(不)(就)(是)(收)(益)(吗)(?
  照)(克)(里)(斯)(的)(话)(,那)(些)(惨)(败)(的)(热)(门)(股)(所)(存)(在)(的)(问)(题)(可)(以)(用)(“外)(强)(中)(干)(”来)(形)(容)(。象)(征)(这)(家)(虚)(拟)(企)(业)(的)(股)(票)(就)(是)(投)(机)(性)(股)(票)((GOGO))这)(是)(一)(家)(有)(自)(动)(贩)(卖)(机)(的)(网)(络)(咖)(啡)(店)(吗)(?谁)(在)(乎)(呢)(!无)(论)(它)(是)(干)(什)(么)(的)(,GOGO的)(出)(现)(都)(极)(受)(欢)(迎)(。投)(资)(者)(以)(30倍)(市)(盈)(率)(购)(买)(股)(票)(,4年)(内)(,GOCO的)(收)(益)(以)(年)(均)(30%的)(高)(速)(增)(长)(。到)(了)(第)(五)(年)(,GOGO有)(些)(萎)(靡)(不)(振)(,收)(益)(“仅)(”上)(涨)(15%。对)(大)(部)(分)(公)(司)(而)(言)(,15%的)(增)(幅)(已)(经)(很)(不)(错)(了)(,但)(是)(GOGO的)(投)(资)(者)(却)(希)(望)(能)(增)(长)(更)(多)(。现)(在)(,他)(们)(不)(大)(愿)(意)(购)(买)(GOGO,而)(且)(仅)(以)(当)(年)(价)(格)(的)(一)(半)(-15倍)(市)(盈)(率)(购)(股)(。从)(而)(导)(致)(股)(价)(出)(现)(了)(50%的)(“调)(整)(”。
  此)(时)(,账)(面)(收)(益)(消)(失)(了)(,任)(何)(早)(早)(购)(买)(了)(COGO,并)(度)(过)(了)(其)(短)(暂)(鼎)(盛)(时)(期)(的)(投)(资)(者)(仅)(仅)(得)(到)(了)(6%的)(年)(回)(报)(率)(——刚)(好)(抵)(消)(其)(风)(险)(。美)(国)(政)(府)(债)(券)(的)(利)(息)(也)(为)(6%,但)(风)(险)(却)(小)(得)(多)(。
  一)(旦)(一)(支)(高)(速)(成)(长)(型)(股)(票)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(,投)(资)(者)(就)(不)(得)(不)(面)(临)(一)(个)(无)(情)(的)(数)(学)(公)(式)(:一)(支)(股)(票)(若)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(50%,那)(么)(它)(要)(回)(到)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(点)(的)(话)(,就)(必)(须)(上)(涨)(100%。
  3.购)(买)(适)(度)(成)(长)(型)(公)(司)(价)(格)(适)(中)(的)(股)(票)(。选)(择)(那)(些)(收)(益)(增)(长)(速)(度)(高)(于)(股)(票)(市)(盈)(率)(的)(公)(司)(才)(是)(理)(想)(的)(投)(资)(。保)(险)(和)(金)(融)(业)(容)(易)(被)(低)(估)(。
  斯)(尔)(必)(认)(为)(选)(择)(那)(些)(收)(益)(增)(长)(速)(度)(高)(于)(股)(票)(市)(盈)(率)(的)(公)(司)(才)(是)(理)(想)(的)(投)(资)(。他)(不)(会)(购)(买)(GOGO,而)(是)(寻)(找)(像)(SOSO(假)(设)(有)(这)(样)(一)(家)(她)(区)(银)(行)()那)(
  样)(的)(公)(司)(。SOSO的)(收)(益)(率)(为)(13%,并)(不)(引)(人)(注)(目)(,股)(票)(则)(以)(适)(度)(的)(10倍)(市)(盈)(率)(出)(售)(。如)(果)(SOSO在)(今)(后)(5年)(内)(仍)(能)(保)(持)(预)(期)(收)(益)(,并)(使)(投)(资)(者)(以)(15倍)(市)(盈)(率)(购)(买)(股)(票)(,那)(么)(耐)(心)(的)(股)(东)(们)(就)(能)(得)(到)(20%的)(年)(回)(报)(率)(,而)(若)(投)(资)(于)(COGO,年)(回)(报)(率)(仅)(为)(6%。
  有)(时)(候)(,戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(还)(能)(发)(现)(一)(支)(“秘)(密)(成)(长)(股)(”,有)(着)(SOSO的)(名)(声)(和)(微)(软)(的)(赢)(利)(能)(力)(。合)(理)(的)(价)(格)(、丰)(厚)(的)(收)(益)(,两)(者)(的)(结)(合)(实)(在)(令)(人)(无)(法)(抗)(拒)(,而)(戴)(维)(斯)(发)(现)(美)(国)(国)(际)(集)(团)(以)(及)(其)(他)(许)(多)(公)(司)(的)(股)(票)(都)(属)(于)(此)(类)(。
  如)(果)(美)(国)(国)(际)(集)(团)(的)(股)(票)(是)(领)(先)(股)(或)(改)(良)(股)(,投)(资)(者)(自)(然)(会)(以)(高)(价)(购)(买)(。但)(作)(为)(一)(家)(单)(调)(沉)(闷)(的)(保)(险)(公)(司)(,美)(国)(国)(际)(集)(团)(从)(没)(有)(出)(现)(过)(理)(性)(或)(非)(理)(性)(的)(购)(股)(热)(潮)(。股)(票)(长)(期)(低)(估)(使)(股)(价)(下)(降)(的)(风)(险)(减)(到)(最)(低)(。
  4.耐)(心)(等)(待)(直)(到)(股)(价)(回)(复)(合)(理)(。如)(果)(斯)(比)(尔)(看)(中)(某)(家)(公)(司)(,但)(其)(股)(价)(过)(高)(时)(,他)(会)(耐)(心)(等)(待)(时)(机)(,直)(到)(股)(价)(回)(落)(。偶)(尔)(出)(现)(的)(熊)(市)(也)(成)(了)(谨)(慎)(的)(投)(资)(者)(们)(的)(最)(佳)(伙)(伴)(。就)(像)(戴)(维)(斯)(过)(去)(常)(说)(的)(:“熊)(市)(能)(使)(投)(资)(者)(发)(大)(财)(,但)(他)(们)(在)(那)(时)(却)(没)(有)(意)(识)(到)(这)(一)(点)(。”
  有)(时)(候)(,一)(个)(行)(业)(会)(出)(现)(自)(己)(的)(熊)(市)(。20世)(纪)(80年)(代)(的)(房)(地)(产)(熊)(市)(蔓)(延)(到)(了)(银)(行)(业)(,从)(而)(使)(斯)(尔)(必)(有)(机)(会)(购)(买)(花)(旗)(银)(行)(和)(富)(国)(银)(行)(的)(股)(票)(。20世)(纪)(90年)(代)(初)(,克)(林)(顿)(政)(府)(误)(导)(性)(的)(医)(疗)(改)(革)(项)(目)(导)(致)(药)(品)(股)(票)(出)(现)(熊)(市)(,一)(流)(制)(药)(公)(司)((默)(克)(、辉)(瑞)(制)(药)(、礼)(来)(公)(司)(等)(等)()的)(股)(票)(均)(下)(跌)(了)(40到)(50个)(百)(分)(点)(。而)(斯)(
  尔)(必)(和)(克)(里)(斯)(在)(上)(述)(三)(家)(公)(司)(都)(有)(投)(资)(。
  任)(何)(一)(家)(公)(司)(都)(会)(有)(自)(己)(的)(熊)(市)(,只)(要)(负)(面)(新)(闻)(使)(股)(价)(下)(跌)(。此)(时)(正)(是)(购)(买)(股)(票)(的)(好)(时)(机)(,前)(提)(是)(公)(司)(的)(负)(面)(新)(闻)(只)(是)(暂)(时)(的)(,并)(不)(会)(阻)(碍)(公)(司)(的)(长)(期)(发)(展)(。
  “当)(你)(购)(买)(一)(家)(实)(力)(雄)(厚)(的)(公)(司)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(的)(股)(票)(,你)(会)(有)(一)(定)(风)(险)(,因)(为)(投)(资)(者)(的)(期)(望)(值)(比)(较)(低)(。”当)(市)(盈)(率)(过)(高)(时)(,克)(里)(斯)(被)(迫)(等)(待)(股)(价)(下)(跌)(。
  整)(个)(20世)(纪)(80年)(代)(,有)(一)(大)(堆)(以)(10倍)(至)(12倍)(市)(盈)(率)(出)(售)(股)(票)(的)(成)(长)(型)(公)(司)(供)(斯)(尔)(必)(选)(择)(。而)(到)(了)(繁)(荣)(的)(90年)(代)(,这)(些)(公)(司)(却)(几)(乎)(完)(全)(消)(失)(了)(。克)(里)(斯)(和)(肯)(从)(没)(有)(像)(现)(在)(这)(样)(被)(迫)(等)(待)(股)(价)(下)(跌)(。
  5.顺)(流)(而)(动)(。只)(要)(斯)(比)(尔)(能)(找)(到)(股)(价)(合)(理)(,有)(实)(际)(收)(益)(并)(实)(现)(全)(球)(化)(经)(营)(的)(高)(科)(技)(公)(司)(,他)(就)(会)(急)(切)(地)(购)(入)(。
  斯)(尔)(必)(选)(择)(技)(术)(股)(时)(非)(常)(慎)(重)(,但)(他)(并)(不)(完)(全)(排)(除)(技)(术)(股)(,两)(位)(著)(名)(的)(技)(术)(恐)(惧)(者)(,巴)(菲)(特)(和)(彼)(得)(·林)(奇)(,也)(是)(如)(此)(。
  只)(要)(他)(能)(找)(到)(股)(价)(合)(理)(、有)(实)(际)(收)(益)(并)(实)(现)(全)(球)(化)(经)(营)(的)(高)(科)(技)(公)(司)(,斯)(尔)(必)(就)(会)(急)(切)(地)(购)(入)(该)(股)(票)(。否)(则)(,他)(就)(会)(错)(过)(收)(益)(最)(为)(可)(观)(的)(行)(业)(。他)(一)(开)(始)(购)(买)(了)(因)(特)(网)(股)(票)(,盈)(利)(相)(当)(丰)(厚)(。从)(20世)(纪)(80年)(代)(中)(期)(起)(,他)(选)(择)(了)(IBM。此)(外)(,还)(购)(进)(了)(应)(用)(材)(料)(公)(司)(的)(股)(票)(,上)(演)(了)(一)(出)(锄)(头)(与)(铁)(锹)(的)(现)(代)(戏)(。在)(19世)(纪)(的)(淘)(金)(潮)(中)(,商)(人)(靠)(出)(售)(锄)(头)(和)(铁)(锹)(发)(了)(大)(财)(,而)(那)(些)(去)(淘)(金)(的)(人)(则)(破)(产)(了)(。同)(样)(地)(,应)(用)(材)(料)(公)(司)(将)(设)(备)(卖)(给)(半)(导)(体)(业)(的)(淘)(金)(者)(而)(发)(了)(财)(。
  6.主)(题)(投)(资)(。斯)(比)(尔)(会)(寻)(找)(主)(题)(,比)(如)(70年)(代)(的)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(。到)(了)(80年)(代)(,通)(胀)(下)(行)(,斯)(比)(尔)(削)(减)(了)(硬)(资)(产)(,转)(而)(购)(买)(金)(融)(资)(产)(,利)(率)(下)(降)(使)(金)(融)(业)(从)(中)(受)(益)(。90年)(代)(,主)(题)(是)(:婴)(儿)(潮)(人)(口)(老)(龄)(化)(。随)(着)(美)(国)(历)(史)(上)(最)(富)(裕)(的)(一)(代)(人)(逐)(渐)(老)(龄)(化)(,药)(品)(公)(司)(,保)(健)(业)(和)(疗)(养)(院)(成)(了)(受)(益)(人)(。药)(品)(股)(票)(出)(现)(过)(一)(次)(大)(幅)(度)(上)(涨)(后)(,斯)(比)(尔)(开)(始)(等)(待)(下)(一)(次)(股)(价)(下)(降)(的)(来)(临)(。
  “从)(下)(往)(上)(”型)(选)(股)(人)(投)(资)(于)(那)(些)(前)(景)(良)(好)(的)(公)(司)(。只)(要)(公)(司)(有)(发)(展)(前)(途)(,无)(论)(是)(石)(油)(钻)(探)(业)(还)(是)(快)(餐)(连)(锁)(业)(,他)(们)(都)(乐)(于)(投)(资)(。而)(“从)(上)(往)(下)(”型)(选)(股)(人)(则)(会)(首)(先)(研)(究)(当)(前)(经)(济)(形)(势)(,找)(出)(有)(可)(能)(兴)(盛)(起)(来)(的)(行)(业)(,然)(后)(再)(从)(中)(选)(择)(公)(司)(。斯)(尔)(必)(兼)(有)(这)(两)(类)(选)(股)(人)(的)(特)(征)(。他)(在)(投)(资)(前)(,会)(首)(先)(寻)(找)(“主)(题)(”。而)(很)(多)(时)(候)(,主)(题)(都)(是)(相)(当)(明)(显)(的)(。
  7.让)(绩)(优)(股)(一)(统)(天)(下)(。戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(购)(买)(股)(票)(后)(一)(般)(不)(会)(抛)(售)(。典)(型)(的)(成)(长)(型)(共)(同)(基)(金)(每)(年)(会)(出)(售)(90%的)(资)(产)(,取)(而)(代)(之)(的)(是)(其)(他)(可)(能)(更)(有)(发)(展)(前)(景)(的)(商)(品)(。纽)(约)(风)(险)(基)(金)(的)(周)(转)(率)(约)(为)(15%左)(右)(。而)(戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(购)(买)(股)(票)(后)(一)(般)(不)(会)(抛)(售)(,主)(要)(原)(因)(在)(于)(他)(们)(可)(以)(不)(用)(支)(付)(长)(期)(收)(益)(的)(巨)(额)(资)(本)(收)(益)(税)(。这)(种)(方)(式)(使)(交)(易)(成)(本)(较)(低)(,而)(且)(避)(免)(了)(频)(繁)(交)(易)(中)(可)(能)(出)(现)(的)(失)(误)(。而)(频)(繁)(交)(易)(的)(投)(资)(者)(赢)(亏)(的)(风)(险)(则)(各)(占)(一)(半)(。
  斯)(尔)(必)(小)(时)(候)(,戴)(维)(斯)(就)(一)(直)(告)(诉)(他)(选)(择)(时)(机)(根)(本)(没)(用)(。现)(在)(,斯)(尔)(必)(又)(将)(这)(些)(话)(转)(告)(给)(克)(里)(斯)(和)(安)(德)(鲁)(。
  “我)(们)(以)(长)(期)(可)(以)(接)(受)(的)(低)(价)(购)(买)(股)(票)(,”斯)(尔)(必)(说)(,“最)(终)(,希)(望)(股)(票)(能)(以)(‘合)(理)(价)(值)(’出)(售)(,而)(一)(旦)(达)(到)(合)(理)(价)(值)(,只)(要)(收)(益)(能)(持)(续)(增)(长)(,我)(们)(就)(会)(长)(期)(持)(有)(该)(股)(票)(。我)(们)(愿)(意)(以)(合)(理)(价)(值)(购)(买)(股)(票)(,但)(最)(终)(还)(是)(希)(望)(这)(是)(一)(支)(成)(长)(股)(。”
  “我)(会)(安)(安)(心)(心)(守)(着)(一)(支)(股)(票)(度)(过)(两)(三)(个)(萧)(条)(期)(或)(者)(说)(市)(场)(周)(期)(。那)(样)(的)(话)(,我)(就)(能)(了)(解)(公)(司)(是)(如)(何)(应)(对)(经)(济)(萧)(条)(朝)(和)(繁)(荣)(期)(的)(。”
  8.信)(赖)(卓)(越)(管)(理)(。戴)(维)(斯)(的)(投)(资)(依)(赖)(于)(美)(国)(国)(际)(几)(天)(的)(汉)(克)(格)(林)(伯)(格)(之)(类)(卓)(越)(的)(经)(理)(人)(。同)(样)(,斯)(比)(尔)(也)(信)(赖)(因)(特)(尔)(的)(安)(迪)(格)(罗)(夫)(和)(太)(阳)(美)(国)(公)(司)(的)(艾)(利)(布)(罗)(德)(。如)(果)(一)(位)(优)(秀)(的)(领)(导)(人)(离)(开)(了)(原)(先)(的)(公)(司)(去)(了)(别)(处)(,那)(么)(斯)(比)(尔)(也)(会)(相)(应)(地)(把)(资)(金)(投)(入)(该)(新)(公)(司)(,因)(为)(他)(信)(赖)(该)(经)(理)(人)(的)(才)(能)(。“任)(何)(一)(家)(公)(司)(要)(获)(得)(成)(功)(,优)(秀)(的)(管)(理)(是)(至)(关)(重)(要)(的)(,这)(是)(华)(尔)(街)(公)(认)(的)(真)(理)(,但)(是)(一)(般)(的)(分)(析)(报)(告)(总)(是)(忽)(略)(这)(一)(点)(”,克)(里)(斯)(说)(,“分)(析)(师)(总)(是)(喜)(欢)(讨)(论)(最)(新)(的)(数)(据)(,但)(是)(对)(我)(们)(而)(言)(,如)(果)(公)(司)(领)(导)(人)(没)(有)(事)(先)(经)(过)(评)(定)(的)(话)(,我)(们)(绝)(不)(会)(购)(买)(任)(何)(股)(票)(。”
  9.忘)(记)(过)(去)(。华)(尔)(街)(的)(风)(风)(雨)(雨)(告)(诉)(我)(们)(最)(宝)(贵)(的)(一)(点)(就)(是)(历)(史)(不)(会)(完)(全)(重)(演)(。
  “计)(算)(机)(及)(其)(无)(穷)(无)(尽)(的)(数)(据)(库)(总)(使)(得)(投)(资)(者)(关)(注)(过)(去)(,”斯)(尔)(必)(说)(,“人)(们)(从)(没)(有)(像)(现)(在)(这)(样)(从)(过)(去)(预)(测)(未)(来)(。”华)(尔)(街)(的)(风)(风)(雨)(雨)(告)(诉)(我)(们)(最)(宝)(贵)(的)(一)(点)(就)(是)(历)(史)(不)(会)(完)(全)(重)(演)(。自)(1929年)(的)(大)(萧)(条)(后)(,25年)(来)(投)(资)(者)(一)(直)(不)(敢)(购)(买)(股)(票)(,因)(为)(他)(们)(错)(误)(地)(认)(为)(1929年)(的)(历)(史)(很)(快)(就)(会)(重)(演)(。二)(战)(后)(,他)(们)(不)(买)(股)(票)(的)(原)(因)(在)(于)(他)(们)(认)(识)(到)(经)(济)(萧)(条)(总)(是)(伴)(随)(战)(争)(而)(来)(。20世)(纪)(70年)(代)(的)(后)(半)(期)(,他)(们)(不)(买)(股)(票)(,准)(备)(应)(对)(1973年)(至)(1974年)(熊)(市)(的)(重)(演)(。正)(如)(斯)(尔)(必)(在)(1979年)(所)(写)(的)(,“如)(今)(的)(大)(部)(分)(投)(资)(者)(都)(花)(费)(了)(过)(多)(的)(时)(间)(用)(来)(防)(御)(那)(些)(我)(们)(认)(为)(不)(大)(可)(能)(出)(现)(的)(相)(同)(程)(度)(的)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(。”1988年)(至)(1989年)(,他)(们)(不)(买)(股)(票)(,因)(为)(担)(心)(1987年)(的)(经)(济)(崩)(溃)(又)(将)(重)(演)(。而)(上)(述)(种)(种)(情)(况)(,他)(们)(事)(后)(都)(会)(后)(悔)(。
  10.坚)(持)(到)(底)(。“股)(票)(在)(1年)(,3年)(或)(者)(甚)(至)(5年)(内)(都)(会)(有)(一)(定)(风)(险)(,但)(10年)(到)(15年)(就)(不)(同)(了)(。”克)(里)(斯)(说)(,“我)(父)(亲)(进)(入)(股)(市)(时)(正)(逢)(股)(市)(巅)(峰)(期)(,但)(20年)(后)(,当)(初)(糟)(糕)(的)(表)(现)(已)(经)(无)(关)(紧)(要)(了)(。在)(致)(股)(东)(的)(信)(中)(,我)(们)(一)(再)(重)(申)(:我)(们)(在)(跑)(马)(拉)(松)(。”
  戴)(维)(斯)(检)(测)(表)(:
  1997年)(,斯)(比)(尔)(写)(到)(,他)(的)(基)(金)(所)(选)(择)(的)(每)(一)(家)(公)(司)(都)(具)(备)(如)(下)(大)(部)(分)(特)(征)(:
  1.一)(流)(的)(管)(理)(,诚)(实)(守)(信)(的)(良)(好)(记)(录)(。
  2.开)(展)(创)(新)(研)(究)(,利)(用)(技)(术)(充)(分)(发)(挥)(优)(势)(。
  3.国)(内)(外)(运)(作)(均)(表)(现)(良)(好)(。国)(外)(市)(场)(使)(呈)(饱)(和)(状)(态)(的)(美)(国)(公)(司)(有)(了)(新)(的)(机)(会)(实)(现)(快)(速)(发)(展)(。一)(些)(华)(尔)(街)(分)(析)(家)(声)(称)(可)(口)(可)(乐)(公)(司)(的)(鼎)(盛)(时)(期)(早)(早)(20世)(纪)(80年)(代)(初)(期)(就)(已)(结)(束)(,但)(可)(口)(可)(乐)(公)(司)(却)(走)(向)(海)(外)(,使)(他)(们)(的)(言)(论)(不)(攻)(自)(破)(。类)(似)(的)(例)(子)(还)(包)(括)(美)(国)(国)(际)(集)(团)(,麦)(当)(劳)(。
  4.所)(售)(产)(品)(或)(服)(务)(永)(不)(过)(时)(。
  5.公)(司)(内)(部)(人)(士)(拥)(有)(大)(量)(股)(份)(,并)(对)(公)(司)(的)(成)(功)(举)(足)(轻)(重)(。
  6.股)(东)(资)(本)(回)(报)(率)(高)(,公)(司)(经)(理)(人)(致)(力)(于)(回)(报)(投)(资)(者)(。
  7.保)(持)(最)(低)(开)(支)(,从)(而)(使)(公)(司)(成)(为)(低)(成)(本)(制)(造)(商)(。
  8.公)(司)(在)(一)(个)(不)(断)(发)(展)(的)(市)(场)(上)(占)(有)(优)(势)(地)(位)(或)(上)(升)(地)(位)(。
  9.公)(司)(善)(于)(收)(购)(竞)(争)(对)(手)(,并)(能)(增)(加)(盈)(利)(。
  10.公)(司)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(良)(好)(。
  戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(依)(赖)(于)(戴)(维)(斯)(双)(杀)(来)(提)(高)(回)(报)(率)(,而)(不)(是)(下)(注)(与)(高)(风)(险)(的)(投)(机)(股)(。如)(果)(投)(资)(能)(以)(美)(奶)(奶)(10%的)(速)(度)(增)(长)(,那)(么)(就)(会)(得)(到)(丰)(厚)(的)(收)(益)(,而)(如)(果)(能)(以)(每)(年)(15%或)(者)(更)(快)(的)(速)(度)(增)(长)(,将)(有)(巨)(额)(回)(报)(。哪)(怕)(近)(期)(出)(现)(亏)(损)(也)(会)(显)(得)(微)(不)(足)(道)(。耐)(心)(,深)(思)(熟)(虑)(以)(及)(三)(个)(时)(代)(的)(考)(研)(构)(成)(了)(戴)(维)(斯)(王)(朝)(成)(功)(投)(资)(的)(秘)(诀)(。
  技)(术)(股)(或)(者)(技)(术)(类)(基)(金)(持)(有)(人)(在)(股)(市)(崩)(溃)(中)(,亲)(眼)(见)(到)(了)(各)(个)(价)(位)(的)(成)(长)(股)(的)(危)(险)(性)(。倡)(导)(新)(纪)(元)(观)(念)(的)(投)(资)(者)(经)(过)(反)(思)(,开)(始)(关)(注)(旧)(纪)(元)(的)(思)(想)(,即)(过)(热)(的)(股)(市)(总)(能)(恢)(复)(平)(静)(的)(不)(变)(真)(理)(。无)(论)(我)(们)(是)(否)(已)(经)(陷)(于)(最)(近)(一)(次)(熊)(市)(的)(谷)(底)(,也)(无)(论)(是)(否)(将)(会)(跌)(到)(谷)(底)(,都)(只)(是)(个)(人)(的)(猜)(测)(。但)(是)(2015年)(的)(急)(转)(直)(下)(已)(经)(使)(投)(资)(者)(付)(出)(了)(上)(万)(亿)(元)(的)(代)(价)(,也)(使)(狂)(热)(的)(股)(民)(意)(志)(消)(沉)(。它)(还)(使)(股)(市)(更)(接)(近)(戴)(维)(斯)(的)(盈)(利)(舒)(适)(区)(,即)(,能)(以)(低)(于)(15倍)(市)(盈)(率)(的)(价)(格)(购)(买)(股)(票)(,并)(
  投)(资)(于)(几)(十)(年)(来)(一)(直)(保)(持)(7—15%年)(收)(益)(增)(长)(率)(的)(公)(司)(。
  在)(股)(市)(上)(升)(期)(是)(一)(种)(跟)(风)(的)(选)(股)(,投)(资)(者)(认)(为)(不)(存)(在)(价)(格)(过)(高)(的)(情)(况)(,而)(在)(股)(市)(下)(降)(期)(,则)(是)(一)(支)(破)(财)(股)(,卖)(方)(认)(为)(不)(存)(在)(价)(格)(过)(低)(的)(情)(况)(。但)(是)(购)(买)(价)(格)(适)(中)(、更)(为)(可)(靠)(的)(成)(长)(股)(,就)(像)(戴)(维)(斯)(那)(么)(做)(。他)(们)(依)(赖)(于)(戴)(维)(斯)(的)(双)(杀)(来)(提)(高)(回)(报)(率)(,而)(不)(是)(下)(注)(于)(高)(风)(险)(的)(投)(机)(股)(。
  在)(经)(济)(萧)(条)(期)(,七)(二)(法)(则)(使)(戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(受)(益)(匪)(浅)(,他)(们)(认)(识)(到)(:如)(果)(投)(资)(能)(以)(每)(年)(10%的)(速)(度)(增)(长)(,那)(么)(就)(会)(得)(到)(丰)(厚)(的)(收)(益)(,而)(如)(果)(能)(以)(每)(年)(15%或)(更)(快)(的)(速)(度)(增)(长)((戴)(维)(斯)(的)(投)(资)(组)(合)(和)(斯)(尔)(必)(的)(风)(险)(基)(金)(都)(做)(到)(了)(),将)(会)(有)(巨)(额)(回)(报)(,哪)(怕)(近)(期)(出)(现)(亏)(损)(也)(会)(显)(得)(微)(不)(足)(道)(。耐)(心)(、深)(思)(熟)(虑)(以)(及)(三)(个)(时)(代)(的)(考)(验)(构)(成)(了)(戴)(维)(斯)(王)(朝)(成)(功)(投)(资)(的)(秘)(诀)(。
  下)(面)(分)(享)(李)(剑)(峰)(的)(《戴)(维)(斯)(王)(朝)(:70年)(价)(值)(投)(资)(生)(涯)(》,李)(剑)(锋)(系)(瑞)(士)(盈)(丰)(银)(行)((CEFG)资)(产)(管)(理)(部)(门)(资)(深)(基)(金)(经)(理)(!
  谈)(起)(国)(外)(投)(资)(界)(的)(传)(奇)(人)(物)(,我)(们)(通)(常)(会)(想)(到)(巴)(菲)(特)(、林)(奇)(等)(等)(这)(些)(耳)(熟)(能)(详)(的)(大)(家)(。但)(是)(笔)(者)(将)(要)(介)(绍)(的)(,是)(在)(美)(国)(投)(资)(界)(独)(树)(一)(帜)(却)(鲜)(为)(人)(知)(的)(一)(个)(家)(族)(——戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(。
  原)(因)(有)(三)(。
  第)(一)(,戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(在)(美)(国)(投)(资)(界)(享)(誉)(盛)(名)(,祖)(孙)(三)(代)(都)(是)(极)(成)(功)(的)(投)(资)(家)(。华)(尔)(街)(传)(奇)(投)(资)(家)(巴)(顿)(·比)(格)(斯)(生)(前)(把)(戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(盛)(赞)(为)(“华)(尔)(街)(最)(伟)(大)(的)(家)(族)(之)(一)(”。众)(所)(周)(知)(,投)(资)(是)(一)(个)(对)(人)(要)(求)(极)(高)(的)(行)(业)(,知)(识)(、品)(性)(的)(修)(养)(为)(缺)(一)(不)(可)(,上)(面)(提)(到)(的)(那)(些)(投)(资)(大)(家)(,无)(一)(不)(是)(经)(历)(千)(锤)(百)(炼)(而)(修)(炼)(而)(成)(。一)(个)(家)(族)(世)(出)(一)(个)(投)(资)(大)(师)(已)(实)(属)(不)(易)(,祖)(孙)(三)(代)(皆)(成)(名)(于)(江)(湖)(,大)(概)(美)(国)(历)(史)(上)(也)(是)(独)(此)(一)(家)(。鼎)(盛)(时)(期)(,这)(个)(家)(族)(曾)(经)(管)(理)(1000亿)(美)(元)(的)(庞)(大)(资)(产)(,作)(为)(一)(个)(白)(手)(起)(家)(,且)(从)(未)(雇)(佣)(庞)(大)(的)(分)(析)(师)(和)(基)(金)(经)(理)(队)(伍)(的)(家)(族)(资)(产)(管)(理)(公)(司)(,这)(是)(相)(当)(了)(不)(起)(的)(成)(就)(。正)(因)(为)(如)(此)(,《战)(胜)(华)(尔)(街)(》(BeatingtheStreet)、《彼)(得)(·林)(奇)(的)(成)(功)(投)(资)(》(OneUpontheStreet)等)(畅)(销)(书)(的)(作)(者)(约)(翰)(·罗)(斯)(柴)(尔)(德)(于)(2003年)(专)(门)(写)(了)(一)(本)(传)(记)(,名)(为)(《戴)(维)(斯)(王)(朝)(》,记)(载)(了)(这)(个)(家)(族)(祖)(孙)(三)(代)(人)(的)(事)(迹)(,并)(由)(彼)(得)(·林)(奇)(亲)(自)(作)(序)(。
  第)(二)(,戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(的)(投)(资)(史)(,是)(价)(值)(投)(资)(本)(身)(价)(值)(所)(在)(最)(好)(的)(诠)(释)(。祖)(孙)(三)(代)(人)(的)(投)(资)(生)(涯)(,跨)(越)(70年)(,经)(历)(过)(了)(近)(百)(年)(来)(几)(乎)(所)(有)(美)(国)(历)(史)(的)(最)(重)(要)(的)(事)(件)(:戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(自)(始)(至)(终)(奉)(行)(的)(价)(值)(投)(资)(让)(他)(们)(不)(仅)(成)(功)(地)(度)(过)(了)(所)(有)(的)(这)(些)(市)(场)(波)(动)(,而)(且)(创)(造)(了)(投)(资)(史)(上)(为)(数)(不)(多)(的)(长)(期)(跑)(赢)(市)(场)(的)(业)(绩)(记)(录)(。
  第)(三)(,笔)(者)(曾)(与)(戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(第)(二)(代)(掌)(门)(人)(于)(6月)(初)(在)(纽)(约)(有)(过)(一)(面)(之)(缘)(。老)(人)(已)(经)(80岁)(,平)(易)(近)(人)(,在)(退)(休)(之)(后)(把)(所)(有)(的)(时)(间)(都)(贡)(献)(给)(了)(他)(的)(慈)(善)(事)(业)(。他)(的)(世)(界)(联)(合)(大)(学)((UnitedWorldCollege),用)(奖)(学)(金)(支)(持)(世)(界)(各)(地)(尤)(其)(是)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(的)(高)(中)(毕)(业)(生)(到)(美)(国)(顶)(尖)(大)(学)(学)(习)(。几)(天)(的)(相)(处)(,老)(人)(给)(了)(笔)(者)(很)(多)(的)(鼓)(励)(、忠)(告)(和)(建)(议)(。笔)(者)(在)(回)(伦)(敦)(的)(飞)(机)(上)(捧)(着)(这)(本)(《戴)(维)(斯)(王)(朝)(》,犹)(如)(回)(到)(了)(上)(个)(世)(纪)(,细)(细)(品)(味)(老)(人)(的)(一)(生)(,感)(触)(良)(多)(。在)(这)(里)(把)(这)(本)(书)(介)(绍)(给)(国)(内)(的)(同)(行)(们)(,算)(是)(对)(老)(人)(精)(彩)(一)(生)(的)(一)(点)(纪)(念)(。
  第)(一)(代)(戴)(维)(斯)(:无)(法)(复)(制)(的)(战)(绩)(
  戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(的)(投)(资)(史)(,始)(于)(出)(生)(于)(1906年)(的)(谢)(尔)(比)(·卡)(洛)(姆)(·戴)(维)(斯)((ShelbyCullomDavis)。据)(说)(祖)(先)(是)(从)(“五)(月)(花)(”登)(陆)(美)(国)(的)(最)(早)(一)(批)(移)(民)(。青)(年)(时)(代)(的)(戴)(维)(斯)(对)(经)(济)(和)(金)(融)(毫)(无)(兴)(趣)(。1928年)(从)(普)(林)(斯)(顿)(大)(学)(历)(史)(系)(毕)(业)(后)(,戴)(维)(斯)(周)(游)(欧)(洲)(,并)(在)(瑞)(士)(获)(得)(了)(政)(治)(学)(博)(士)(学)(位)(。回)(国)(后)(,戴)(维)(斯)(零)(零)(星)(星)(做)(过)(几)(份)(工)(作)(,其)(中)(包)(括)(纽)(约)(州)(保)(险)(行)(业)(部)(门)(主)(管)(。就)(是)(这)(份)(工)(作)(,改)(变)(了)(戴)(维)(斯)(的)(一)(生)(。
  直)(到)(今)(天)(,保)(险)(行)(业)(依)(然)(是)(投)(资)(界)(公)(认)(的)(最)(难)(理)(解)(的)(行)(业)(之)(一)(。保)(险)(业)(财)(务)(报)(表)(复)(杂)(且)(充)(斥)(着)(行)(业)(术)(语)(,上)(世)(纪)(40年)(代)(的)(保)(险)(行)(业)(的)(信)(息)(披)(露)(更)(是)(极)(为)(有)(限)(。戴)(维)(斯)(利)(用)(职)(务)(之)(便)(,详)(细)(研)(究)(了)(保)(险)(行)(业)(的)(历)(史)(和)(商)(业)(模)(式)(,成)(为)(了)(一)(个)(不)(折)(不)(扣)(的)(行)(业)(专)(家)(。卸)(任)(后)(,已)(经)(38岁)(的)(戴)(维)(斯)(,问)(老)(丈)(人)(借)(了)(5万)(美)(元)(,于)(1947年)(成)(立)(公)(司)(,专)(门)(投)(资)(保)(险)(行)(业)(股)(票)(。
  那)(个)(时)(候)(,经)(济)(大)(萧)(条)(刚)(刚)(结)(束)(,市)(场)(避)(险)(情)(绪)(极)(高)(,没)(有)(人)(对)(股)(票)(有)(任)(何)(兴)(趣)(,美)(国)(政)(府)(债)(券)(是)(公)(认)(的)(最)(安)(全)(的)(金)(融)(资)(产)(。股)(票)(估)(值)(非)(常)(便)(宜)(,道)(琼)(斯)(指)(数)(市)(盈)(率)(仅)(9.6倍)(。很)(多)(保)(险)(公)(司)(的)(估)(值)(远)(低)(于)(所)(持)(的)(债)(券)(和)(按)(揭)(贷)(款)(等)(金)(融)(资)(产)(价)(值)(。另)(外)(,美)(国)(保)(险)(业)(也)(随)(经)(济)(的)(复)(苏)(成)(为)(成)(长)(性)(良)(好)(的)(行)(业)(。随)(着)(大)(批)(新)(家)(庭)(的)(成)(立)(,人)(寿)(、房)(屋)(、汽)(车)(等)(险)(种)(增)(速)(明)(显)(加)(快)(。戴)(维)(斯)(正)(是)(看)(中)(了)(这)(个)(行)(业)(的)(低)(估)(值)(和)(即)(将)(到)(来)(的)(成)(长)(性)(,大)(举)(购)(入)(美)(国)(保)(险)(公)(司)(的)(股)(票)(,并)(使)(用)(了)(最)(大)(限)(度)(的)(杠)(杆)(。在)(接)(下)(来)(的)(十)(年)(里)(,随)(着)(保)(险)(行)(业)(成)(长)(的)(加)(速)(,保)(险)(公)(司)(的)(市)(盈)(率)(也)(随)(着)(市)(场)(情)(绪)(的)(好)(转)(而)(上)(升)(,盈)(利)(增)(长)(和)(市)(盈)(率)(同)(时)(提)(升)(,这)(就)(是)(著)(名)(的)(“戴)(维)(斯)(双)(击)(”(DavisDoublePlay)效)(应)(。再)(加)(上)(杠)(杆)(,戴)(维)(斯)(的)(财)(富)(开)(始)(迅)(速)(地)(积)(累)(。
  到)(了)(60年)(代)(,道)(琼)(斯)(指)(数)(已)(经)(从)(1947年)(戴)(维)(斯)(开)(始)(投)(资)(的)(时)(候)(上)(涨)(了)(5倍)(,而)(戴)(维)(斯)(的)(那)(些)(保)(险)(公)(司)(股)(票)(同)(期)(上)(涨)(了)(200倍)(。这)(时)(戴)(维)(斯)(觉)(得)(美)(国)(保)(险)(公)(司)(估)(值)(不)(再)(有)(吸)(引)(力)(,于)(是)(把)(目)(光)(投)(向)(日)(本)(。调)(研)(后)(,戴)(维)(斯)(果)(断)(大)(举)(买)(入)(了)(日)(本)(保)(险)(公)(司)(的)(股)(票)(,这)(让)(戴)(维)(斯)(不)(但)(再)(一)(次)(上)(演)(了)(戴)(维)(斯)(双)(击)(,还)(分)(散)(了)(以)(后)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(的)(风)(险)(。
  从)(某)(种)(程)(度)(上)(来)(说)(,戴)(维)(斯)(是)(一)(个)(独)(一)(无)(二)(的)(投)(资)(者)(,他)(以)(一)(己)(之)(力)(,单)(凭)(一)(个)(行)(业)(,创)(造)(了)(投)(资)(史)(上)(的)(奇)(迹)(。戴)(维)(斯)(起)(初)(问)(岳)(父)(借)(的)(5万)(美)(元)(,在)(他)(去)(世)(的)(时)(候)(,已)(经)(变)(成)(了)(9亿)(美)(元)(的)(巨)(额)(财)(富)(。当)(然)(,戴)(维)(斯)(赶)(上)(了)(美)(国)(和)(日)(本)(两)(个)(市)(场)(最)(繁)(荣)(的)(几)(十)(年)(,并)(上)(了)(杠)(杆)(,而)(且)(几)(个)(牛)(熊)(市)(场)(交)(替)(,他)(几)(乎)(一)(股)(未)(卖)(。天)(时)(地)(利)(人)(和)(,恐)(怕)(很)(难)(有)(人)(可)(以)(复)(制)(戴)(维)(斯)(的)(投)(资)(战)(绩)(了)(。
  第)(二)(代)(戴)(维)(斯)(:基)(金)(业)(的)(奇)(迹)(
  第)(二)(代)(戴)(维)(斯)(出)(生)(于)(1937年)(。戴)(维)(斯)(给)(儿)(子)(取)(了)(一)(个)(跟)(自)(己)(一)(模)(一)(样)(的)(名)(字)(。为)(了)(以)(示)(区)(分)(,笔)(者)(下)(面)(称)(其)(为)(谢)(尔)(比)(。谢)(尔)(比)(的)(青)(少)(年)(时)(代)(跟)(戴)(维)(斯)(如)(出)(一)(辙)(,上)(的)(同)(一)(所)(高)(中)(,念)(的)(同)(一)(所)(大)(学)((普)(林)(斯)(顿)(),学)(的)(同)(一)(个)(专)(业)((历)(史)()。但)(谢)(尔)(比)(没)(有)(浪)(费)(时)(间)(,毕)(业)(之)(后)(直)(接)(进)(入)(华)(尔)(街)(工)(作)(,在)(纽)(约)(银)(行)(研)(究)(部)(做)(了)(一)(名)(股)(票)(分)(析)(师)(,那)(个)(时)(候)(,股)(票)(分)(析)(师)(还)(是)(个)(不)(太)(流)(行)(的)(行)(业)(,对)(公)(司)(的)(研)(究)(也)(常)(常)(只)(是)(闭)(门)(造)(车)(。从)(小)(就)(跟)(着)(戴)(维)(斯)(去)(见)(保)(险)(公)(司)(CEO的)(谢)(尔)(比)(显)(然)(不)(满)(足)(于)(纸)(上)(谈)(兵)(,他)(注)(重)(调)(研)(和)(实)(地)(考)(察)(。那)(个)(时)(候)(上)(市)(公)(司)(也)(基)(本)(还)(没)(有)(设)(投)(资)(者)(关)(系)(部)(门)(,所)(以)(,22岁)(的)(谢)(尔)(比)(在)(调)(研)(中)(常)(常)(能)(够)(直)(接)(对)(话)(公)(司)(的)(CEO。
  1966年)(,谢)(尔)(比)(离)(开)(银)(行)(,和)(其)(他)(两)(个)(合)(伙)(人)(创)(立)(了)(一)(个)(基)(金)(,开)(始)(大)(举)(购)(买)(高)(科)(技)(股)(票)(。然)(而)(,谢)(尔)(比)(的)(运)(气)(远)(没)(有)(戴)(维)(斯)(那)(么)(好)(。戴)(维)(斯)(开)(始)(投)(资)(的)(时)(候)(,股)(票)(市)(场)(遍)(地)(是)(便)(宜)(货)(。而)(谢)(尔)(比)(入)(场)(的)(时)(候)(,经)(历)(了)(多)(年)(牛)(市)(的)(股)(票)(市)(场)(估)(值)(已)(经)(偏)(贵)(。那)(是)(“漂)(亮)(50(NiftyFifty)”大)(行)(其)(道)(的)(年)(代)(,科)(技)(股)(是)(最)(火)(爆)(的)(板)(块)(。任)(何)(一)(个)(名)(字)(里)(头)(有)(“数)(据)(”或)(者)(“系)(统)(”的)(公)(司)(都)(会)(受)(到)(市)(场)(盲)(目)(地)(追)(捧)(。谢)(尔)(比)(的)(基)(金)(开)(张)(第)(一)(年)(就)(因)(为)(回)(报)(率)(达)(到)(25.3%而)(上)(了)(《机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(》和)(《商)(业)(周)(刊)(》等)(杂)(志)(的)(专)(访)(。谢)(尔)(比)(说)(:“那)(时)(我)(们)(觉)(得)(自)(己)(简)(直)(就)(是)(天)(才)(”。对)(于)(高)(估)(值)(,谢)(尔)(比)(认)(为)(“买)(的)(是)(好)(公)(司)(,即)(便)(它)(们)(的)(股)(票)(价)(值)(被)(高)(估)(,它)(们)(依)(然)(是)(好)(公)(司)(”。1969年)(,谢)(尔)(比)(接)(管)(了)(一)(个)(陷)(入)(困)(境)(的)(基)(金)(NewYorkVentureFund。
  然)(而)(,好)(景)(不)(长)(,1969-1970年)(间)(,科)(技)(股)(暴)(跌)(,谢)(尔)(比)(的)(基)(金)(1970年)(一)(年)(内)(下)(跌)(了)(21.1%。坏)(运)(气)(还)(远)(不)(止)(这)(些)(。1973年)(到)(1974年)(,越)(南)(战)(争)(、尼)(克)(松)(政)(府)(垮)(台)(、美)(元)(贬)(值)(、石)(油)(禁)(运)(令)(油)(价)(从)(6美)(元)(一)(桶)(暴)(涨)(至)(23美)(元)(等)(一)(些)(大)(事)(件)(,让)(市)(盈)(率)(高)(达)(30倍)(的)(美)(国)(股)(市)(陷)(入)(了)(恐)(慌)(。美)(国)(股)(市)(经)(历)(了)(经)(济)(大)(萧)(条)(之)(后)(最)(严)(重)(的)(一)(次)(暴)(跌)(。到)(1974年)(年)(底)(,美)(国)(股)(市)(的)(市)(盈)(率)(直)(接)(跌)(回)(到)(了)(7.5倍)(,而)(红)(极)(一)(时)(的)(“漂)(亮)(50”平)(均)(跌)(幅)(高)(达)(43.6%。虽)(然)(谢)(尔)(比)(的)(基)(金)(在)(这)(两)(年)(内)(大)(幅)(减)(仓)(,持)(有)(高)(达)(30%的)(现)(金)(,但)(这)(段)(经)(历)(依)(然)(给)(谢)(尔)(比)(留)(下)(了)(惨)(痛)(的)(教)(训)(:再)(好)(的)(公)(司)(,估)(值)(过)(高)(的)(时)(候)(去)(买)(,都)(可)(能)(会)(损)(失)(惨)(重)(。从)(此)(以)(后)(,谢)(尔)(比)(不)(再)(追)(捧)(投)(资)(者)(期)(望)(值)(过)(高)(的)(股)(票)(,而)(把)(重)(心)(转)(向)(了)(增)(长)(平)(稳)(但)(估)(值)(合)(理)(的)(股)(票)(。
  谢)(尔)(比)(的)(基)(金)(在)(接)(下)(来)(的)(市)(场)(反)(弹)(中)(大)(举)(投)(资)(了)(能)(源)(、金)(属)(、材)(料)(等)(板)(块)(和)(中)(小)(盘)(股)(,这)(些)(股)(票)(在)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(高)(企)(的)(70年)(代)(大)(幅)(跑)(赢)(市)(场)(。谢)(尔)(比)(的)(基)(金)(从)(此)(走)(上)(正)(轨)(,表)(现)(越)(来)(越)(好)(。在)(第)(十)(一)(年)(的)(时)(候)(,基)(金)(的)(累)(计)(回)(报)(率)(就)(超)(过)(了)(100%,而)(同)(时)(期)(标)(准)(普)(尔)(指)(数)(仅)(上)(涨)(了)(18.8%,道)(琼)(斯)(指)(数)(竟)(跌)(了)(0.3%。临)(近)(80年)(代)(,谢)(尔)(比)(又)(成)(功)(预)(见)(了)(长)(达)(20年)(的)(利)(率)(下)(降)(,抛)(掉)(了)(70年)(代)(购)(买)(的)(重)(资)(产)(股)(票)(,大)(幅)(购)(入)(估)(值)(相)(对)(便)(宜)(的)(银)(行)(股)(和)(保)(险)(股)(,再)(一)(次)(踩)(准)(了)(市)(场)(的)(节)(奏)(。
  第)(三)(代)(戴)(维)(斯)(:延)(续)(辉)(煌)(
  谢)(尔)(比)(有)(三)(个)(孩)(子)(,安)(德)(鲁)(、克)(里)(斯)(和)(维)(克)(多)(利)(亚)(,都)(是)(60年)(代)(出)(生)(。谢)(尔)(比)(从)(小)(就)(注)(重)(培)(养)(他)(们)(对)(投)(资)(的)(兴)(趣)(,让)(他)(们)(小)(学)(的)(时)(候)(就)(开)(始)(接)(触)(金)(融)(,开)(了)(银)(行)(账)(户)(,而)(且)(给)(每)(人)(一)(笔)(数)(目)(不)(大)(的)(钱)(投)(资)(股)(票)(。谢)(尔)(比)(还)(让)(三)(个)(孩)(子)(给)(自)(己)(基)(金)(做)(兼)(职)(股)(票)(分)(析)(师)(,每)(写)(一)(份)(研)(究)(报)(告)(谢)(尔)(比)(就)(给)(他)(们)(100美)(元)(。在)(饭)(桌)(上)(,别)(人)(家)(的)(父)(子)(谈)(论)(的)(是)(球)(赛)(,谢)(尔)(比)(家)(里)(谈)(论)(的)(是)(股)(票)(。
  大)(学)(毕)(业)(后)(,安)(德)(鲁)(先)(后)(在)(波)(士)(顿)(和)(纽)(约)(的)(金)(融)(机)(构)(工)(作)(,迅)(速)(成)(为)(这)(些)(机)(构)(的)(骨)(干)(。克)(里)(斯)(则)(是)(在)(欧)(洲)(游)(历)(之)(后)(进)(入)(了)(祖)(父)(戴)(维)(斯)(的)(公)(司)(工)(作)(。维)(克)(多)(利)(亚)(最)(终)(没)(有)(选)(择)(金)(融)(行)(业)(。90年)(代)(,克)(里)(斯)(和)(安)(德)(鲁)(最)(终)(都)(进)(入)(了)(谢)(尔)(比)(的)(基)(金)(公)(司)(。而)(戴)(维)(斯)(一)(生)(成)(功)(投)(资)(所)(创)(造)(的)(所)(有)(财)(富)(,也)(在)(他)(去)(世)(后)(尽)(数)(投)(入)(了)(这)(个)(基)(金)(。戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(三)(代)(人)(的)(财)(富)(和)(投)(资)(生)(涯)(,在)(这)(一)(刻)(,凝)(结)(到)(了)(一)(起)(,在)(华)(尔)(街)(续)(写)(着)(辉)(煌)(。
  时)(至)(今)(日)(,谢)(尔)(比)(已)(经)(退)(休)(,衣)(钵)(早)(已)(传)(承)(给)(克)(里)(斯)(。而)(克)(里)(斯)(也)(成)(为)(了)(华)(尔)(街)(著)(名)(的)(基)(金)(经)(理)(,继)(续)(着)(戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(的)(辉)(煌)(的)(传)(统)(和)(业)(绩)(。投)(资)(大)(师)(霍)(华)(德)(.马)(克)(斯)(的)(大)(作)(《投)(资)(最)(重)(要)(的)(事)(》注)(释)(版)(,克)(里)(斯)(就)(是)(受)(邀)(为)(书)(做)(评)(注)(的)(几)(位)(投)(资)(大)(家)(之)(一)(。
  戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(的)(成)(功)(准)(则)(
  回)(顾)(戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(70年)(的)(投)(资)(史)(,我)(们)(可)(以)(归)(纳)(出)(十)(条)(不)(变)(的)(规)(律)(:
  第)(一)(,避)(免)(价)(值)(陷)(阱)(。估)(值)(便)(宜)(的)(公)(司)(往)(往)(也)(就)(值)(这)(个)(价)(。戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(绝)(对)(不)(是)(格)(雷)(厄)(姆)(那)(样)(的)(寻)(找)(“雪)(茄)(屁)(股)(”的)(深)(度)(价)(值)(投)(资)(者)(。在)(讨)(论)(一)(个)(公)(司)(的)(估)(值)(之)(前)(,他)(们)(必)(定)(先)(判)(断)(这)(个)(公)(司)(是)(不)(是)(个)(值)(得)(投)(资)(的)(好)(公)(司)(。
  第)(二)(,避)(免)(估)(值)(过)(高)(的)(公)(司)(。估)(值)(高)(的)(公)(司)(往)(往)(确)(实)(是)(好)(公)(司)(。但)(如)(果)(一)(个)(好)(公)(司)(的)(估)(值)(过)(高)(,一)(旦)(基)(本)(面)(有)(任)(何)(程)(度)(的)(恶)(化)(,投)(资)(者)(的)(情)(绪)(由)(乐)(观)(到)(悲)(观)(的)(转)(换)(,常)(常)(会)(导)(致)(该)(股)(票)(的)(市)(盈)(率)(腰)(斩)(,令)(投)(资)(者)(蒙)(受)(难)(以)(弥)(补)(的)(损)(失)(。毕)(竟)(,腰)(斩)(过)(的)(股)(票)(得)(翻)(倍)(才)(能)(保)(本)(。
  第)(三)(,平)(缓)(增)(长)(但)(估)(值)(合)(理)(的)(股)(票)(是)(最)(安)(全)(的)(,尤)(其)(是)(公)(司)(成)(长)(率)(高)(于)(市)(盈)(率)(的)(时)(候)(,这)(也)(是)(戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(最)(为)(偏)(好)(的)(投)(资)(标)(的)(。
  第)(四)(,喜)(欢)(的)(股)(票)(估)(值)(不)(合)(理)(的)(时)(候)(,要)(耐)(心)(等)(待)(。市)(场)(参)(与)(者)(情)(绪)(的)(频)(繁)(变)(化)(常)(常)(会)(为)(耐)(心)(的)(投)(资)(者)(创)(造)(绝)(佳)(的)(买)(入)(时)(机)(,尤)(其)(是)(熊)(市)(的)(时)(候)(。一)(家)(原)(本)(受)(市)(场)(追)(捧)(的)(优)(质)(的)(公)(司)(也)(常)(常)(会)(因)(为)(种)(种)(原)(因)(被)(投)(资)(者)(抛)(售)(,如)(果)(这)(些)(因)(素)(不)(影)(响)(公)(司)(长)(期)(的)(基)(本)(面)(,这)(个)(时)(候)(就)(是)(有)(耐)(心)(的)(投)(资)(者)(该)(变)(得)(贪)(婪)(的)(时)(候)(。
  第)(五)(,要)(拥)(抱)(科)(技)(的)(进)(步)(。在)(笔)(者)(看)(来)(,戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(最)(为)(难)(能)(可)(贵)(的)(地)(方)(之)(一)(,就)(是)(虽)(然)(他)(们)(的)(财)(富)(积)(累)(主)(要)(来)(自)(于)(保)(险)(、银)(行)(等)(那)(些)(他)(们)(看)(来)(“永)(不)(过)(时)(”的)(传)(统)(行)(业)(,但)(他)(们)(并)(没)(有)(像)(巴)(菲)(特)(和)(林)(奇)(那)(样)(从)(不)(投)(资)(科)(技)(股)(。在)(笔)(者)(当)(面)(向)(谢)(尔)(比)(请)(教)(如)(何)(成)(功)(管)(理)(一)(个)(基)(金)(的)(时)(候)(,其)(忠)(告)(记)(忆)(犹)(新)(:“第)(一)(,狠)(狠)(投)(资)(你)(擅)(长)(的)(东)(西)((对)(他)(来)(说)(是)(银)(行)(业)();第)(二)(,不)(擅)(长)(的)(行)(业)(向)(指)(数)(看)(齐)((也)(就)(是)(说)(,他)(的)(基)(金)(投)(资)(了)(美)(股)(所)(有)(表)(现)(最)(好)(的)(科)(技)(股)()。”多)(么)(明)(智)(的)(做)(法)(!笔)(者)(目)(睹)(无)(数)(给)(自)(己)(贴)(上)(“价)(值)(投)(资)(者)(”标)(签)(的)(同)(行)(始)(终)(无)(法)(说)(服)(自)(己)(去)(买)(亚)(马)(逊)(、谷)(歌)(、脸)(书)(等)(高)(科)(技)(行)(业)(的)(股)(票)(,因)(而)(大)(幅)(跑)(输)(市)(场)(,仅)(仅)(是)(因)(为)(这)(些)(股)(票)(市)(盈)(率)(偏)(高)(。人)(类)(的)(很)(多)(进)(步)(是)(真)(实)(的)(,与)(其)(顽)(固)(的)(排)(斥)(和)(怀)(疑)(,不)(如)(积)(极)(的)(拥)(抱)(这)(些)(新)(生)(事)(物)(。
  第)(六)(,注)(重)(宏)(观)(微)(观)(的)(结)(合)(。戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(很)(多)(成)(功)(的)(投)(资)(源)(于)(他)(们)(的)(宏)(观)(观)(点)(,例)(如)(戴)(维)(斯)(在)(大)(萧)(条)(后)(投)(资)(的)(美)(国)(保)(险)(业)(和)(60年)(代)(在)(日)(本)(经)(济)(爆)(发)(之)(前)(投)(资)(的)(日)(本)(保)(险)(业)(;再)(如)(谢)(尔)(比)(在)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(高)(企)(的)(70年)(代)(投)(资)(的)(能)(源)(、金)(属)(和)(采)(矿)(业)(和)(80年)(代)(低)(通)(胀)(、低)(利)(率)(,高)(增)(长)(的)(宏)(观)(主)(题)(下)(把)(40%的)(基)(金)(都)(投)(入)(了)(金)(融)(业)(。
  第)(七)(,不)(要)(赚)(点)(钱)(就)(跑)(,让)(盈)(利)(的)(股)(票)(持)(续)(复)(利)(增)(长)(。这)(点)(非)(常)(重)(要)(,也)(常)(常)(被)(人)(忽)(视)(。据)(统)(计)(,一)(般)(基)(金)(年)(换)(手)(率)(高)(达)(90%,而)(谢)(尔)(比)(的)(基)(金)(换)(手)(率)(只)(有)(15%。而)(戴)(维)(斯)(的)(股)(票)(组)(合)(,从)(他)(开)(始)(投)(资)(直)(到)(退)(休)(,那)(十)(几)(只)(主)(要)(的)(股)(票)(几)(乎)(从)(未)(卖)(过)(,即)(便)(是)(经)(历)(了)(多)(次)(熊)(市)(。其)(中)(12只)(主)(要)(的)(股)(票)(,戴)(维)(斯)(购)(买)(的)(成)(本)(价)(总)(共)(才)(15万)(美)(元)(,而)(这)(些)(股)(票)(在)(1992年)(的)(时)(候)(已)(经)(价)(值)(2610万)(美)(元)(。如)(果)(戴)(维)(斯)(一)(赚)(钱)(就)(跑)(,绝)(不)(可)(能)(创)(造)(出)(把)(5万)(美)(元)(变)(成)(9亿)(美)(元)(的)(辉)(煌)(战)(绩)(。
  第)(八)(,投)(资)(杰)(出)(的)(管)(理)(团)(队)(。历)(史)(反)(复)(证)(明)(,杰)(出)(的)(管)(理)(团)(队)(可)(以)(通)(过)(成)(功)(的)(资)(本)(配)(置)(决)(策)(为)(股)(东)(创)(造)(大)(量)(的)(价)(值)(。在)(投)(资)(任)(何)(公)(司)(之)(前)(,戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(必)(定)(会)(对)(管)(理)(团)(队)(进)(行)(尽)(职)(调)(查)(。很)(遗)(憾)(,有)(太)(多)(人)(忽)(视)(了)(这)(点)(有)(多)(重)(要)(。
  第)(九)(,往)(前)(看)(,不)(要)(往)(后)(看)(。太)(多)(人)(在)(分)(析)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(、公)(司)(和)(行)(业)(的)(时)(候)(都)(喜)(欢)(把)(过)(去)(和)(现)(在)(两)(点)(一)(线)(,然)(后)(扩)(展)(开)(来)(,以)(此)(来)(预)(测)(将)(来)(。当)(今)(信)(息)(时)(代)(的)(数)(据)(和)(软)(件)(工)(具)(极)(大)(地)(简)(化)(了)(这)(件)(事)(,但)(这)(样)(预)(测)(出)(来)(的)(未)(来)(是)(有)(问)(题)(的)(。历)(史)(从)(不)(会)(完)(全)(一)(模)(一)(样)(的)(重)(复)(。每)(个)(投)(资)(者)(都)(需)(要)(有)(前)(瞻)(性)(,过)(去)(发)(生)(了)(什)(么)(,往)(往)(没)(有)(什)(么)(借)(鉴)(意)(义)(。正)(如)(美)(国)(经)(济)(大)(萧)(条)(之)(后)(没)(有)(人)(投)(资)(股)(票)(,每)(个)(人)(都)(躲)(在)(看)(似)(安)(全)(的)(美)(国)(政)(府)(债)(券)(后)(面)(,于)(是)(完)(全)(错)(过)(了)(接)(下)(来)(的)(股)(票)(大)(牛)(市)(。
  第)(十)(,做)(长)(期)(投)(资)(者)(。克)(里)(斯)(说)(,“股)(票)(投)(资)(的)(回)(报)(,在)(短)(期)(是)(有)(风)(险)(的)(,但)(是)(当)(你)(把)(投)(资)(区)(间)(拉)(长)(到)(10年)(或)(者)(15年)(,风)(险)(就)(变)(得)(很)(小)(了)(。”谢)(尔)(比)(在)(市)(场)(顶)(部)(进)(入)(市)(场)(,成)(立)(基)(金)(之)(后)(马)(上)(经)(历)(了)(一)(次)(牛)(市)(,但)(是)(20年)(后)(,那)(个)(入)(场)(的)(时)(期)(几)(乎)(变)(得)(无)(关)(紧)(要)(。
  最)(后)(值)(得)(一)(提)(的)(是)(,戴)(维)(斯)(家)(族)(三)(代)(人)(的)(生)(活)(都)(非)(常)(节)(俭)(,避)(免)(一)(切)(不)(必)(要)(的)(花)(销)(。跟)(巴)(菲)(特)(一)(样)(,在)(他)(们)(眼)(中)(,每)(花)(掉)(1美)(元)(,损)(失)(的)(不)(仅)(仅)(是)(现)(在)(的)(价)(值)(,还)(损)(失)(了)(这)(1美)(元)(在)(接)(下)(来)(的)(几)(十)(年)(中)(能)(创)(造)(的)(所)(有)(复)(利)(。克)(里)(斯)(小)(时)(候)(有)(一)(次)(跟)(祖)(父)(戴)(维)(斯)(出)(游)(,肚)(子)(饿)(了)(想)(问)(戴)(维)(斯)(借)(1美)(元)(在)(街)(边)(买)(一)(个)(热)(狗)(充)(饥)(,戴)(维)(斯)(对)(他)(说)(“你)(知)(道)(吗)(?这)(1美)(元)(如)(果)(你)(投)(资)(得)(当)(的)(话)(,每)(五)(年)(可)(以)(翻)(一)(倍)(,50年)(后)(,这)(1美)(元)(就)(会)(变)(成)(1024美)(元)(。你)(真)(的)(想)(花)(一)(千)(美)(元)(买)(个)(热)(狗)(吗)(?”
  来)(源)(:最)(强)(投)(资)((ID:zuiqiangtz)
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